01 August 2016

21 December 2015

Scott Adams' Series on Donald Trump (Master Wizard Persuasion)

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame (Scott Adams' Amazon Page) has been doing a series of posts about Donald Trump since August of 2015. He is not endorsing Trump as President, but rather pointing out a different perspective on his hi-jinx. Edit: on Oct. 24, 2016, Scott endorsed Trump finally.

I can't tell you if Adams is right about Trump's style and choices, but it is fascinating reading. So I decided to document and keep a running page with the Trump Persuasion series. You can also click on the hashtags on his blog, but I like to have this list.

For the record, I am not in any way endorsing Trump, or anyone else either. So what follows is a compilation of all of Scott's posts on Trump and his presidential run starting in July 2015.

Postscript: Scott got it right. Last August, he said that Trump had persuasion skills seldom seen. He said that Trump would win by a landslide. Not just the Republican primaries, but the general election. HE stuck to that all the way through and asked his readers to keep an open mind and look at the world through a different lens. That lens has resulted in perhaps the only correct forecast in the World of this election. He did not hit every intermediate point perfectly, and the general election was not a landslide, but the perspective resulted in a correct prediction well before anybody saw it coming. He focused on the system and positioning that Trump used throughout.

Now moving forward what happens? More later.

July 2015
Outragists Attack Trump and Win, July 2, 2015 (It's possible that there are earlier posts, but this is as far as I went.

August 2015
How Trump Becomes President, Aug 5, 2015
Trump's Plan to Put a Ring Around Isis,  Aug 10, 2015
Clown Genius, Aug 13, 2015. Scott says this is the most important post.
Can We Call a Trump Puppet a Trumpet?, August 14, 2015
Wizard Wars, August 17, 2015. This is the post where Adams really lays out his hypothesis.
Political Reporters Cover a Business Candidate, August 19, 2015. Bonus Thought 4 - Trump will select the next President
Anchors Away, Aug 20, 2105
Trump VS Bush: Persuasion Wars, Aug 24, 2015
Trump Makes Univision Do The Perp Walk, Aug 25
The Third Way on Immigration (Sort of a Trump Post), August 26
Trump Persuasion Alert: Bible Dodge, Aug 26
Trump Persuasion Alert: The Bush-slayer Comment, Aug 27
Nate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated, Aug 28
Trump and Godwin’s Law, Aug 28
Trump Engineers a Clinton Linguistic Kill Shot, Aug 31
Robots Read News - about Celebrity Apprentice, Aug 31

September 2015
Identifying the Smart Voters, Sep 1, 2015. All about Cognitive Dissonance
Trump: The “Bad System” Linguistic Bayonette, Sep 1
The Tells (for cognitive dissonance), Sep 3
Then You Own the Bank (part of my Trump Persuasion Series), Sep 3
The Time of Kings, Sep 4. Not about Trump specifically, but clever
“Nice Guy” - Part of my Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 5
Cognitive Dissonance: You be the Judge, Sep 5
How to Spot a Wizard, Sep 6
The “Outsider” Explanation - Part of my Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 7
Obama the Stealth Wizard, Sep 7
The Time of Kings - Explained, Sep 8. A follow-up to Time of Kings above.
A Demonstration of Persuasion - Part of my Trump Series, Sep 9
Unknown Wizard Delivers Linguistic Kill Shot via Twitter, Sep 9
Trump Engineers a Linguistic Kill Shot for Fiorina, Sep 10
Who is Smarter - the Smart People or the Dumb People? - Part of My Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 11
Odds of a Kanye West Presidency: 90%, Sep 12
The Trump Versus Sanders Match-up: Part of the Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 14
The Daily Beast Reports on My Trump Posts, Sep 14. Link to the Beast Article.
2-D Chess Players Take on a 3-D Chess Master (Part of my Trump Persuasion Series), Sep 15
Why Trump Insults People - Part of my Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 16
Wizard Attacks Wizard - The Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 17
Carly Fiorina and the Wizard Filter, Sep 17
When Wives Attack - Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 18
People Who Don’t Know How Business Works - Trump Persuasion Series. Sep 18
Trump Linguistic Kill Shot Alert!, Sep 18
Running Against a Branding Wizard - Trump Series, Sep 19
Thinking Past the Sale - Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 19
Checking My Gender Bias - Master Wizard Hypothesis, Sep 19
Calling Jimmy from the Third Dimension, Sep 20
Who is the Better Business Person - Trump or Fiorina?, Sep 21
Obama Vs. Iran - Who is the Wizard?, Sep 21
A Clarification, Sep 21
The “Reason” for Trump’s Success, Sep 23
The Persuasion Reading List, Sep 24, Scott's list of books about persuasion
Opinion Vs. Stupidity, Sep 25. Not about Trump, but interesting.
Violating the Wizard Prime Directive, Sep 27
History’s First Quadruple-Wizard, Sep 29

October 2016
One-on-One Match-ups - Trump Persuasion Series, Oct 1
Robots Read News Endorses Candidate, Oct 1
The American Gun Problem - And How a Master Wizard of Persuasion Could Fix it., Oct 4
Robots Read News - About Humans in Metal Cages, Oct 5
The Trump Confidence Thing, Oct 6. Here's the Politico link.
President Obama: Wizard or Failure?, Oct 6
My Explanation of Trump’s Persuasion Skills for Reason.com, Oct 6. Reason.com video clip
Tells for Cognitive Dissonance (with some Trump flavoring), Oct 9
Narcissistic Accuser Syndrome, Oct 10
Does Trump Linguistically Engineer His Insults?, Oct 11
Who Will Bill Clinton Vote for?, Oct 12
Master Wizard Filter on the Democratic Debate, Oct 14
Tony Robbins Explains How to Beat Trump, Oct 16
Trump’s Persuasiveness - per the Washington Post, Oct 18
Trump’s Third Act (Part of the Trump Persuasion Series), Oct 20
Master Wizard Filter Scorecard, Oct 20
Robots Read News - about Trump and Jeb, Oct 21
The Alpha in the Room, Oct 22
Master Wizard Filter - Netanyahu?, Oct 22, Link to referenced article.
The Case for a Trump Landslide (Part 1), Oct 23
How Persuasion Hides, Oct 24
Talking Like a Fourth-Grader (Part of my Trump Persuasion Series), Oct 25
How a Hypnotist Would Solve ISIS, Oct 26. Not Trump, but related.
Trump’s Town Hall Performance - Give Him a Grade, Oct 26
Economics and Expectations (with a Trump point), Oct 30
Trump’s Selfish Motives (Please explain them to me), Oct 31

November 2015
Why Donald Trump will Ruin the World, Nov 2
The Cage Fight President, Nov 5
The Upside of Ben Carson, Nov 6
Election Notes (Trump and Stuff), Nov 12
Trump on Carson, Nov 13
Cognitive Dissonance Update 1, Nov 16
Trump’s Current Odds, Nov 19
Trump Trouble Report, Nov 26
How Trump Can Solve Immigration, Nov 29

December 2015
Trump’s Favorability - (part of my Trump Persuasion series), Dec 2
My Prediction about My Predictions (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 3
What the Heck is Fascism?, Dec 4
How to Stop that Hitler-like Deportation You Fear, Dec 7
Risk Management - (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 8
My Offer to Stop Donald Trump, Dec 9
The Trump Immigration Surprise - the Trap is Half-Sprung, Dec 10
Master Persuader Update (Part of My Trump Series), Dec 11
Calling the Clinton Top (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 13
Immigration Without the Hate Part (Trump-related), Dec 14
A Voter’s Guide to Thinking, Dec 14
An Unusual Argument for Electing Hillary Clinton, Dec 15
Master Persuader Update - Slip of the Tongue (Trump series), Dec 15
The Lucky Hitler Hypothesis (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 16
The Master Persuader Filter on Michael Moore, Dec 18
Robots Read News about the Sanders Campaign Accessing Clinton Voter Data, Dec 18
Robots Read News - About Hitler’s Testicles, Dec 21 (Trump Humor)
And Then This Happened (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 21. Link to Salon article.
A Deeply Unscientific Test of Your Political Bias (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 22
Target Practice for Robots, Dec 23
The Master Persuader Filter and Trump’s Schlong, Dec 24
Master Persuader Scorecard Update - Clinton Top?, Dec 25
Is Iowa a Caucus or a Mental Health Problem? (Trump Master Persuader Series), Dec 27
The Time I Got Promoted to Nobody, Dec 29
Ranking the Best Political Pundits of 2015, Dec 30
Trump’s Language Skills Analyzed, Dec 30


January 2016
Master Persuader Scorecard Update: 10-out-of-10 Coming?, Jan 2, 2016
Master Persuasion Hypothesis - (Try this one at home), Jan 3
Persuasion or Coincidence?, Jan 4
Trump’s First Ad (Master Persuader Filter), Jan 4
Master Persuader Scorecard (Update Jan 4), Jan 4
Comparing the Candidates (Using the Master Persuader Filter), Jan 5
Making Mexico Pay for the Wall, Jan 5
The Amazon Gift Predictor (Trump Master Persuader Series), Jan 5
The Canadian Gambit (Trump Persuasion Series), Jan 6
Trump and Climate Science (Master Persuader Series), Jan 7
The Thought Police Did Not Like it When I Said Something Like This, Jan 7
Working on the White Guy Brand, Jan 8
Why I Should Win the Nobel Prize (and other things I learned from Trump), Jan 8
Politico Tries to Trump Me on “The Turn”, Jan 9
Why Would a Man Vote for Hillary Clinton?, Jan 9
The Laugh Tell (Trump Master Persuader Series), Jan 9
The Iowa Reframing, Jan 11
The Oddest Thing About Trump, Jan 11
Today I Help You See the Future, Jan 11
Men: Confess Your Support for Hillary Clinton, Jan 12
Charisma Vs. Danger (Master Persuader Series), Jan 13
The Candidate Supporter Stereotypes (Master Persuader Series), Jan 14
Master Persuader Scorecard for the GOP Debate, Jan 15
Robots Read News about Trump’s Offer to…(no spoilers!), Jan 15
The Biggest Trump Story That You Missed (Master Persuasion Series), Jan 15
Trump Master Persuader Quiz: What Would YOU Do?, Jan 17
The Matriarchy - Patriarchy Continuum, Jan 18
Robots Read News about British Politicians and Trump, Jan 19
Trump’s Dog Problem, Jan 19
The Palin Endorsement (Master Persuader Series), Jan 19
The Gender Card Top, Jan 20
Boycott Valentines Day?, Jan 20
Master Persuader Scorecard - Iran Update, Jan 21
Trump’s Talent Stack: Systems versus Goals, Jan 21
Bernie Sanders Turns on the Iowa Afterburners, Jan 21
Updating the Persuasion Stack (National Review’s Trump Cover), Jan 22
The Second American Revolution - What Then?, Jan 25
Trump, FOX News, and Megyn Kelly Explained (Master Persuader Series), Jan 26
The Fake “Because”, Jan 27
Master Persuader Scorecard on the Trumpless Debate, Jan 29
Persuader Fingerprints, Jan 30


February 2016
Fire the Government (And Why Obamacare is Great!), Feb 1
Can a Master Persuader Reverse Hate?, Feb 1
The Cruz Prophesy, Feb 1. This is the book he references.
News Flash: Cartoonist Gets One Wrong!, Feb 2
New Hampshire Prediction (Master Persuader Series), Feb 3
Scoring My Iowa Fraud Call, Feb 4
Spooky Alert! Spooky Alert!, Feb 4
The Pledge of Allegiance, Feb 4
Friday Trump Joke, Feb 5
The GOP Debate Scorecard (Master Persuader Series), Feb 7
New Hampshire Election Fraud Prediction, Feb 8
The Thinking Filters, Feb 9
The Movie Persuasion Filter, Feb 9
My New Hampshire Prediction Scorecard, Feb 10
Why Does Trump Terrify People?, Feb 11
Policies and Name Recognition (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 12
Scalia and the Pillow, Feb 16
The Trump Master Persuader Index and Reading List, Feb 18 - Scott replicates this list and includes a link to his persuasion reading list from Sept 24, 2015
The Pope Versus Donald Trump, Feb 18
Solving for Scary (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 22
My CNN Interview About Trump, Feb 22
Some Respect for Hillary Clinton, Feb 23
How to Spot a Narcissist (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 24
The Choke Artist Versus the Watch Salesman (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 26
Disavowing Trump, Feb 28
Movie Persuasion Recommendations, Feb 29
Trump’s VP Options (Master Persuader Filter), Feb 29

March 2016
Strategic Ambiguity (Master Persuasion Series), Mar 1
Super Tuesday (Master Persuader Series), Mar 2
A Letter to Donald Trump (from a voter, not me), Mar 2
Naming Romney’s Upcoming Anti-Trump Speech, Mar 3
Republican Debate (March 3) Scorecard (Master Persuader Series), Mar 4
The Power of Ideas, Mar 4
Scott Adams on Fox and Friends (clip), Mar 6. and here's the link to the interview
The Conservative Con (Master Persuader Series), Mar 7
Another Way to Make Mexico Pay for The Wall (Trump Persuasion Series), Mar 8
Resort USA, Mar 8
Who Trump Offends with His Salty Language, Mar 9
Let’s Talk About Hitler, Mar 10
GOP Debate Scorecard - March 10 (Master Persuader Series), Mar 11
The Trump Riots That are Mostly My Fault, Mar 13
Donald Trump - Con Man, Mar 15
Clinton Versus Trump, Mar 16
Real Donald Trump Quotes about Women, Mar 16
Stamina - Trump’s Lingistic Kill Shot for Clinton (Master Persuader Series), Mar 17
How to Know Trump is in Your Head, Mar 17
Bumper Sticker Thinking, Mar 19
Social Media is the New Government, Mar 20
The Belgium Analogy, Mar 21
Sleeper Persuasion with a Trigger, Mar 22
Who’s Afraid of Donald Trump?, Mar 24
Trump and Abortion, Mar 31

April 2016
The Trump Chess Board, Apr 18
The Value of Not Voting, Apr 19
Trump Dominates the Empire State, Apr 20
How Powerful is Persuasion?, Apr 21
Cyberbombs and ISIS, Apr 25
The Unfavorability Illusion, Apr 26
And Then There Were Two, Apr 27
Can Trump Change the Frame on His Perceived Sexism?, Apr 28
The Health Tell, Apr 29

May 2016
Say Goodbye to Your Mind, May 1
Clinton Versus Trump - Persuasion Scores, May 3
How to Do Persuasion Wrong, May 4
How Not to Make a Campaign Ad, May 5
The Apology Gambit, May 9
About Those Trump Policy Details, May 11
Power, Persuasion, and Attractiveness, May 13
The Mother of All Campaign Errors, May 13
The John Miller Thing, May 15
Reframing Our Problems, May 16
Trump’s VP Pick Prediction, May 17
Impossible To Ignore, May 17
“Excuse me”, May 18
Evaluating the Political Chess Board, May 19
Being Memorable, May 20
My Podcast with Thor (About Trump’s Persuasion), May 20
Battle of the Campaign Slogans, May 23
The Mark Cuban Factor, May 24
Citizen Government, May 25
The Sanders Debate Gambit, May 26
When Art Directors Take Sides, May 27
How to Hypnotize Bill Maher, May 30
Climate Change and Trump, May 30

June 2016
The Risks of a Trump Presidency, Jun 2
Now It’s a Fair Fight, Jun 3
My Endorsement for President of the United States, Jun 5 Scott Endorses HRH for Self-protection
The Robot Judge, Jun 7
Trump: Man of Science?, Jun 9
The Orlando Trigger, Jun 13
Some of My Tweets, Jun 13
Trump’s Muslim Immigration Proposal (Update), Jun 14
Persuasion Think-ahead, Jun 15
Where’s That Trump Third Act?, Jun 16
How to Un-Hypnotize a Rabid Anti-Trumper, Jun 19
Some Thoughts about Lewandowski, Campaign Funding, and Safety, Jun 21
Why Gun Control Can’t Be Solved in the USA, Jun 22
The Humiliation of the American Male in 2016, Jun 23
Persuasion Update: Clinton Vs. Trump, Jun 28
Hypnotizing My Dog, Snickers, Jun 30
The Time I Accidentally Plunged Europe into Economic Uncertainty, Jun 30

July 2016
The Crook Versus the Racist, Jul 5
The FBI, Credibility, and Government, Jul 7
The Persuasion Diet, Jul 11
When Persuasion Turns Deadly, Jul 11
Trump’s Glide Path, Jul 12
Cop Killers Versus Racists, Jul 14
Gingrich, Pence, and Monitoring Mosques, Jul 16
How Persuaders See the World, Jul 18
Rocking the Vote – for Snoopy?, Jul 20
Newt’s Plan to Defeat ISIS, Jul 20
The Trump Kids Effect, Jul 21
My Opinion of Trump’s Convention Speech, Jul 22
Clinton’s VP Pick, Jul 23 Will Kaine drive away the male vote?
Martial Law Coming?, Jul 24
Clinton Uses “Dark” Magic, Jul 24 Scott thinks Clinton has a weapons grade persuader on her team
The Dark and Rotten Election, Jul 26 Godzilla vs King Kong
Selling Past the Close, Jul 27 Don't! A woman can be president, we get it. Now capture the male vote.
Experience is Overrated, Jul 29
The Inexperienced Voter, Jul 30
Sunday Persuasion Reading, Jul 31

August 2016
Clinton Takes the Persuasion Lead, Aug 3
Drug Testing Presidential Candidates, Aug 7
Several Interesting Things, Aug 18
Trump’s Regrets, Aug 19
The Direct Democracy President, Aug 22 Scott imagines how Trump would really be if he were president
Making Mexico Pay for the Wall, Aug 22
Clinton Dodges the Health Question on Kimmel, Aug 23
Con Man or Hitler?, Aug 24
On a Positive Note…, Aug 24
Clinton and Trump Switch Brands, Aug 25
Finding the Political Bottom, Aug 26
The Face of Persuasion, Aug 27
The Mental Vote, Aug 27
The Most Biased Poll Ever, Aug 28
Be Useful (A Post About Colin Kaepernick), Aug 30
Deportation and Deals, Aug 31 plus powerful hypnotic words

September 2016
See Me on The Rubin Report, Sep 1
Watch Me: Rubin Report (part 2), InfoWars, CNN, Sep 2
Why Trump Doesn’t Scare Me, Sep 5
Godzilla!!!, Sep 6. Scott Says to buy Cialdini's book Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade
The Time I Took Sides with Black Lives Matter. And Colin Kaepernick., Sep 8
Measuring the Shy Trump Supporters, Sep 9
Check Out my Sulley Prediction from 2009, Sep 10
The Race for President is (Probably) Over, Sep 11
Checking My Predictions About Clinton’s Health, Sep 11
Deplorable Pneumonia, Sep 12
When Reality Turned Inside Out, Sep 15 Has Trump successfully pivoted? Who's the crazy one now?
Trump and Birtherism - update, Sep 17
Assessing the Risk of Trump, Sep 18
Checking My Spooky Predictions, Sep 19
How to Know an Election is Over, Sep 22
Blowing Your Mind – as Promised, Sep 23
Why I Switched My Endorsement from Clinton to Trump, Sep 25, Scott Endorses Trump!
How’s My Timing?, Sep 26
Trump’s African-American Reframing, Sep 26
I Score the First Debate, Sep 27, I think Scott may have succumbed to confirmation bias on this one. His claim that Trump won by losing and therefore looking less scary seems really thin to me. I still remain open to the possibility that Scott's Persuasion filter is the best lens at which to look at this election, but as I write this (12-Oct), it is looking increasingly unlikely.
The Wall Around ISIS, Sep 28

October 2016
Presidential Temperament, Oct 3
The Week I Became a Target, Oct 3
Why Does This Happen on My Vacation? (The Trump Tapes), Oct 8
Why I Endorse Gary Johnson (this week), Oct 9
Quick Debate Reactions from Switzerland, Oct 10
Hear Me Tonight on BBC News Hour, Oct 11
Scandal Poker - Trump Vs. Clinton, Oct 12 (Very thin analysis IMHO)
The Era of Women, Oct 13, "Everything that goes wrong with the country from this point forward is women’s fault" Riiiiiiight...
Assume Half of What You Hear About the Candidates is True, Oct 14
Lie Detection and Scandals, Oct 17
Is Twitter Shadowbanning me?, Oct 18
I Wake You Up for the Presidential Debate, Oct 19, Anti-Trumpers are suffering from confirmation bias. He forgets to mention that anti-Clintons are too. HE makes the point that the fear people feel for either candidate is an illusion. He ends it with "...vote for whoever has the policies you like."
I Score the Third Debate, Oct 20, Scott gives Clinton a narrow win.
The Crook Versus the Monster, Oct 21, Scott says that if Trump is elected and turns out to be a Hitler wannabe, he will use all his skills to have him assassinated. He closes with  an admonishment to look beyond the caricatures of the politicians--they're wrong. Vote for whoever has the policies that you like.
How to Insult Me on Twitter, Oct 21
Twitter and Periscope Shadowban Update. Oct 23
How to Legally Vote More Than Once, Oct 23, How to convince the other side not to vote
The Bully Party, Oct 25, Scott wholeheartedly endorses Trump
Watch the Persuasion Battle, Oct 26, I do not like Scott's direction. Some things he says have truth, OTOH, Trump is on camera as bullying and making fun of other American citizens. Scott seems to be denying this...
A Lesson in Cognitive Dissonance, Oct 27
About Leadership, Oct 28
James Comey - As seen through the Persuasion Filter, Oct 31, What is Comey up to? Is there a way to view his actions as consistent?
Candidate Risk Assessment, Oct 31, Hilary is bad because she drinks alcohol. Scott makes up numbers to measure riskiness of candidates. Guess who Scott thinks is less risky. Lol




November 2016
The Persuasion Scorecard Update - One Week Out, Nov 2, Still predicting Trump in a landslide. Fear of Hilary being the dominant emotion against her while Trump only has the Ick factor.
Same Candidates, Different Worlds, Nov 3
Unhypnotizing a Clinton Supporter, Nov 4
Trump the Closer, Nov 4
The Dehypnotizing has Begun, Nov 5
Vote with a Friend (for safety), Nov 6
I Don’t Want a Government Job, Nov 6, "The fight ends Tuesday. After that, let’s try to be useful. No matter what happens."
Thank You for The Best Year Ever, Nov 7, Scott predicts that the Dem forces will br committing election fraud. Two days ago he was still predicting a Trump landslide. Perhaps he is giving himself an out. I have to say that Scott has stuck to his guns. If he is right and Trump wins, I will have to give him serious kudos. If Hillary loses, he has still had a remarkable run.
The Last Confirmation Bias Test of This Election, Nov 8
I Answer Your Questions About Predicting President Trump, Nov 9
The De-Hitlerization of Your Brain. Nov 10
Persuasion or Coincidence?, Nov 10
While You Were Looking in the Wrong Direction, Nov 11
The Cognitive Dissonance Cluster Bomb, Nov 12
How to Break an Illusion, Nov 13
The Thought Experiment that Broke Your Brain, Nov 15
The Hypnosis Lawyer, Nov 16
Working for the Machines, Nov 17
Reprogram an Anti-Trumper with This Article, Nov 17
Generating Cognitive Dissonance for Fun, Nov 20
Persuasion Versus Populism, Nov 21
A Lesson in Cognitive Dissonance, Nov 23
The Trump Talent Stack, Nov 28
About #Pizzagate, Nov 30
The Idea You are Least Likely to Believe, Nov 30

December 2016
The New CEO’s First Moves (and Trump), Dec 1
Trump and the Taiwan Call, Dec 3
The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science, Dec 5
Trump and the Secretary of State “Brand” Decision, Dec 6


I'll keep this page up to date as he posts more.

Scott has a lot of interesting views about psychology and free will as well. His latest book lays out his thoughts on this, There's a lot of wisdom there.





22 April 2015

The Mathematics of Love

I missed this when it first came out, but for anyone who reads Emotions for Engineers, well the title speaks for itself.

Ted Talks - The Mathematics of Love - Hannah Fry

16 August 2014

Sub Optimizing Your Health

Those of you who have read my personal blog know that I am interested in planning and real asset portfolio management. When I say portfolio, it is about understanding how assets interact or correlate and how they affect the whole enterprise. For example, if a company is doing a large project, there is a system cost in doing the project that is seldom considered--when you put people or capital into a large project, there are other projects that do not get done or get delayed.

This work has caused me recently to think about a couple of things.

Maximizing the Health of an Individual at the Expense of Society

Years ago, I had a conversation with my dad who was a doctor. I was feeling pretty smug because I had read about how over-prescription of antibiotics was giving rise to the super-bugs. So I asked him what he does when a patient comes in with flu-like symptoms, but nothing definitive (or some such scenario). He said he would prescribe an antibiotic. Aha I said, you are contributing to the rise of superbugs.

His response was a little startling to me. He said that he didn't know about super-bugs, but he did know that he had a responsibility to his patient and that would be the best course of action for her.

I wrote about the super-bugs and this conversation here as well.

In essence his responsibility was to maximize the health of his patient without regard for overall public health.

Maximizing the Health of an Individual Organ at the Expense of the Body

There is a parallel in the medical specialties. Dermatologists recommend people to minimize sun and use high SPF sun block. When people do this, it minimizes the chances of getting skin cancer, especially carcinoma, the most common form of skin cancer. Their focus is on skin health. It makes sense that they would make these recommendations. In our litigious society, we all need to protect ourselves.

But, in avoiding sun, we reduce the production of vitamin D in our bodies. Vitamin D is important for immune function, and there is evidence that adequate levels of vitamin D can help prevent colds, flu, many other types of cancer, including possibly melanoma--the more deadly form of skin cancer.

So your skin might be in better shape if you minimize sun exposure, but you get the flu or something worse. Important: I do not recommend getting sunburned. Sunburn especially for those under 18 does cause damage to the skin without giving any extra vitamin D benefit. People with light complexions need to be especially careful.

The point of this is that like my father who was focused on his patient at the expense of society at large, medical specialists focus on their organ specialty at the expense of the rest of the body. Drugs work the same way. They focus on doing some very specific thing, e.g. lowering LDL in the blood, then create systemic effects. Remember side-effects are effects.

An Important Role of Government

Who then watches over the whole body and the whole of society. Well for society in the US, we have, in theory, the government. Government entities like the EPA ensure that companies and individuals do not, while pursuing their own enrichment, exact cost on the rest of society. I believe that guarding our shared resources to prevent Tragedy of the Commons is an important role of government. We have seen that with previous systems in place, industry poisoned the environment. Was it because of lack of regulation, protection of the culprits through the anonymity of incorporation, government protections such as limitation of liability, greed, or all of the above? I don't know, but it didn't work. EPA seems to be working better.

A Bad Role of Government

When it comes to the whole body though, remember that it is your body. Nobody has a greater stake than you in ensuring that your body's system is in good health and working well. You are responsible and accountable for what goes into your mouth.

The USDA (department of agriculture) is a great example of what government agencies should not be doing. Their main goal historically has been to support the agricultural sector of the US economy. I don't know the rationale for having a department with a cabinet secretary to do that, but whatever. In 1894 they got into the personal nutrition business publishing nutrition guidelines.  Until 1956, grains were just one of 7 food groups given equal weighting. In 1992 the first food guide pyramid came out emphasizing grains. Separately the United States Senate Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs, aka the McGovern commission, in 1974, changed the focus of our diet towards carbohydrates and away from fats. The health of our nation has been in decline ever since. Food manufacturers bear blame as well.

Don't even get me started on the FDA.

Conclusions


  1. Systems thinking is important; a holistic perspective can give important insights.
  2. Listening only to experts with a very narrow perspective can lead to sub-optimization
  3. Government tries, with mixed results, to look after the systemic good of our nation.
  4. Some of the agencies in the US government seem very closely aligned with industry to the detriment of individuals.
  5. Ultimately you are responsible for yourself. Consider the source, not just their degrees, but also their incentives in providing advice or guidance.

08 August 2014

Blood Pressure - The E4E View

What is Blood Pressure

Blood pressure is the range of pressures in your cardiovascular system exerted by the heart pumping blood through your system. it is normally expressed in units of mmHg (millimeters of mercury). So a value of 120 is enough to support a column of mercury 120 mm high. Blood pressure has two values diastolic and systolic. The systolic (higher value) is the transient pressure in your arteries experienced during a heart beat. The diastolic (lower value) is the recovery or resting pressure experienced in-between heartbeats. Blood pressure is normally expressed as systolic over diastolic, e.g. 120/80.

It is very common to find articles that talk about how high blood pressure is associated with heart disease. It is also common to see articles that say that high blood pressure causes stroke and heart disease. E4E wonders about this and set out to research it.

High Blood Pressure from an Engineering Perspective
Think of the circulatory system and the heart as a pump--perhaps something like a diaphragm or a peristaltic pump. It pushes out the fluid with one stroke, then brings in fluid with the next. Each time the heart pushes out fluid, there is pressure created downstream from the heart. This rapidly dissipates for two main reasons: the arteries themselves are elastic and therefore expand when they receive pressure, the blood flows out of the arteries and into tissue and through the kidneys (and ultimately into the veins for return to the lungs and heart)--it's like having a hose without anything to stop the flow.

From this simplistic perspective then, removing the elasticity of the arteries or restricting the flow from the arteries can cause high blood pressure. Arteriosclerosis, the thickening, hardening, and loss of elasticity of the walls of arteries reduces the elasticity of the arteries, and so is a cause of high diastolic blood pressure. The loss of elasticity can be from either changes in the structure of the artery walls or by deposition of plaques inside the innermost lining of the artery, a condition known as atherosclerosis.

Additionally, renal artery disease, a blockage of the artery that brings blood to the kidneys for filtering, prevents the blood from exiting freely from the arterial system.

After the pulse of pressure from the heart, there is then a brief period for the pressure to dissipate before the next beat. So the systolic pressure indicates your body's ability to handle and dissipate the initial pressure pulse, while the diastolic pressure indicates a more general dissipation of blood into the capillaries.


Is High Blood Pressure Bad?
Medical people have said that high blood pressure (hypertension) increases the risk of kidney failure, stroke, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and events such as an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). From what I can determine, there is actually very little evidence that high pressure by itself is the cause of those issues.

The problem is more likely with the factors that cause the high blood pressure; the pressure is just a symptom. There is something called hypertensive heart disease, which is a thickening of the heart muscle caused by high blood pressure. The heart has to work harder to pump blood, so it bulks up. This larger heart needs a larger blood supply, and if it can't get it, problems ensue. From what I interpret in my readings, it is unclear if the enlarged heart is a primary cause, or if obstructed coronary blood vessels are what prevents the heart from getting blood supply. Wikipedia has a good article on Hypertension.

The hypothesis that hypertension causes these issues goes something like this from MedicineNet:
"High blood pressure makes your heart work harder and, over time, can damage blood vessels throughout your body. If the blood vessels in your kidneys are damaged, they may stop removing wastes and extra fluid from your body. The extra fluid in your blood vessels may then raise blood pressure even more. It's a dangerous cycle."

E4E Take

E4E thinks that the arrow of causality may be reversed. The above quote never addresses what caused hypertension in the first place. I believe that blood factors damage arteries (inflammation), which causes hypertension. The damage to the blood vessels also damages the blood vessels in the kidneys. Once the blood vessels are damaged, I suspect that elevation of blood pressure can rupture blood vessels, leading to events like AAA and stroke. So if your blood vessels are already damaged, it might be worth using drugs to lower BP. In my paradigm, though, that does not prevent further damage to the blood vessels, but might prevent a catastrophic event in the short term.

I would guess that the "high blood pressure causes bad things" paradigm is a relic of the history of medicine. They could measure it, so they did. They found a correlation, and then rationalized a causality story.

I wonder if somewhere, there is primary research, perhaps in animals, in which the researchers elevated blood pressure prior to causing damage to the circulatory system, for example, with a small pump just past the exit from the heart to somehow elevate overall pressure. That might give us a sense of whether elevated BP actually causes damage to otherwise healthy blood vessels.

[Edit: For several days after this post, the issue of blood pressure has been rattling around in my brain. There is a circularity that has confounded me somewhat, so here is what I am thinking:

A damaged vascular system causes high blood pressure. Damaged blood vessels are more prone to failure. The damage creates the danger, and also elevated blood pressure. High blood pressure can, in turn, cause failure in damaged blood vessels.

In the absence of damage, high blood pressure is not dangerous; after all, systolic blood pressure can go over 300 in times of intense exercise. Moderately high blood pressure, e.g 140/90, is indicative that there is damage, but it may not have progressed to dangerous levels. It is important to do everything you can to prevent further damage that would drive your BP higher. Clean up your diet, lay off junk food, eat naturally nutritionally dense foods (not barren foods that are enriched), stick with natural fats (rather than highly-processed ones), layoff sugar, exercise

Drugs that lower BP do not repair or reverse the damage. They may help prevent or delay the catastrophic failure, but they do not fix the real problem, which is the damage to your arteries.

When a water main blows and floods city streets, we don't blame the pumps for creating the pressure, we blame the pipes. Blood pressure is analogous.]

Notes and Sources

Blood Pressure During Exercise

Blood pressure is determined by the force of the heart's contraction times the resistance in the blood vessels. Normal blood pressure is 120 when the heart contracts and 80 when it relaxes. During exercise, the heart beats with increased force to raise blood pressure. It is normal for blood pressure to rise up to 200 over 80 during running, and to 300 over 200 while doing a leg press with very heavy weights. If high blood pressure is bad, why is exercise good? Again, the pressure is not what causes damage, however, high blood pressure can cause ruptures of already damaged blood vessels.

Salt and Blood Pressure
The press and medical establishment have, for years, warned us to reduce salt intake to reduce our incidence of high blood pressure. Unless you have some kind of physical problem processing salt, your blood pressure might rise by up to 6 mm Hg after ingesting salt. Notice "might" and "up to" in the last sentence. Salt is not what causes your pressure to go from 120/80 to 160/100.

Recent New England Journal of Medicine paper on reductions of death that could result from a reduction in salt intake.

This paper on the Hypertension Paradox addresses the fact that despite improved means to treat hypertension, it continues to increase in the population. It seems they are considering hypertension as a disease rather than as a symptom. This is the problem with aggressive drug treatment of cholesterol as well.

Gary Taubes wrote an article in Science magazine entitled "The (Political) Science of Salt." (That is a free link. Science charges for the article.) The article is written in the vein of Good Calories, Bad Calories, and Taubes received the 1999 National Association of Science Writers' Science in Journalism Award award for writing it. His conclusions were that the research supports the concept that salt is, at most, the cause of a few point of blood pressure.

Here's what he said in this article in the Daily Bell:
"Daily Bell: Can you explain more about salt in diet and blood pressure, etc?"

"Taubes: For fifty years, researchers have been trying to causally link salt consumption to hypertension and the data has continued to be, at best, ambiguous. It's a nice hypothesis, but it just hasn't panned out in human trials or even, really, in the observational studies. On the other hand, it's been known since the 1870s that carbohydrates cause water retention and the more water you retain, simplistically speaking, the higher your blood pressure will be. It's been known since the 1950s that when people go on carbohydrate-restricted diets their blood pressure drops dramatically because of that water loss, and it's been known since the 1980s that one of the many things insulin does is regulate blood pressure. Moreover, hypertension is associated with obesity and diabetes so, in one sense, whatever causes obesity and diabetes also causes hypertension, and obesity and diabetes, as I explain in GCBC, are almost assuredly caused by the quality and quantity of carbohydrates in our diet."

From everything I can tell, high blood pressure is associated with cardiovascular disease--it is not a cause of the disease. Tom Naughton (creator of Fat Head) expressed a number of alternate hypotheses on the Fat Head blog.

  • "Refined carbohydrates produce high blood sugar and high levels of insulin, which in turn are both bad news for your arteries.  Refined carbohydrates also cause water retention, which raises your blood pressure.  (So if you really want to reduce your blood pressure, give up the sugar and starch.)"
  • "Blood pressure tends to go up as we get older.  (Mine hasn’t, but bear with me here.)  We’re also more likely to suffer heart attacks and strokes as we get older.
  • "Stress causes your body to produce more cortisol, which can damage your arteries.  Stress also raises your blood pressure.
  • "Eating lots of vegetables may be good for your heart.  Vegetables are also high in potassium, which lowers blood pressure."



John Briffa - Blood pressure is a symptom. Fixing the symptom may not fix the underlying problem.
John Briffa - is lower blood pressure always better? This report on a study that shows that lowering blood pressure below140/90 did not result in any changes to outcomes. The pressure was changed through chemical/medicinal means.

There has recently been a call to arms to reduce salt in food, under the premise that doing so will save "between 44,000 and 92,000" lives every year. The articles I read didn't go into detail, but the thinking in the past has gone something like this. (WebMD, New York Times, LA Times)
1. Salt causes high blood pressure
2. High blood pressure causes heart attack and stroke
3. Reduction in blood pressure of x points reduces probability of heart attack or stroke by y%
4. Therefore, reduction of salt will reduce deaths by total susceptible population * y%

Of the above points, the basic premises (1 and 2) are not supported by research and science. The extrapolation (3) is based on a correlation in the data with no implicit causality. The conclusion is just speculation that follows from 1, 2, and 3. Repeat after me "Correlation is not Causation."

The Diet Doctor blog

Bad Science leads to Bad Government

A related subject is the link between high blood pressure and heart disease and stroke. The latest class of anti-hypertensives, angiotensin II receptor antagonists, which includes such brands as Benicar, Cozaar, and Valtran, do a great job reducing blood pressure but the scientific evidence shows they do not decrease the incidence of myocardial infarction (heart attacks). The older ACE inhibitors, such as lisinopril, reduce blood pressure and also reduce the incidence of heart attacks and death, and they are also available for $0.11 a day. Read more at http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-mark-hyman/why-cholesterol-may-not-b_b_290687.html

Recent Research
The British Medical Journal published a paper recently called Hypertension: empirical evidence and implications in 2014. Their finding is that there is no evidence that reducing blood pressure in people with mild hypertension with antihypertensive therapy will reduce cardiovascular events or mortality.


Some Additional Links:

Chris Kresser post on Blood Pressure and how to lower it naturally

Insulin and Hypertension from an evolutionary  perspective


Tierney NYT article



Blood Pressure reduction does not reduce cardiovascular risk in Diabetics


There is a question about the impact of Isolated Diastolic hypertension, i.e. the  high number's low and the low number's high. The Wiley article below concludes that there is little evidence of danger from IDH. There is evidence that using aural measurement of BP (with a stethoscope) can result in systematically higher readings of BP. E4E wonders whether, with accurate readings of the diastolic, this might be shown to have a high risk.

Isolated Diastolic Hypertension -

Another Isolated Diastolic Hypertension (Wiley) article - doesn't find much association with adverse issues.

04 August 2012

Book Review: Practical Paleo. The Missing Manual Is Now Out

Background:

The basic idea of paleo diets and lifestyles is that man evolved eating foods and with activity patterns different from what most of us have today. Many of the foods we eat and the activities we pursue today and for that last 10,000 years (since the dawn of agriculture) are not good for us. (More accurately, do not provide optimal health). With some changes to our lifestyles, we can achieve robust or optimal health.

I have mentioned in some of my previous posts on nutrition that paleo style eating is probably a good path, and I continue to believe that. Many people have trouble actually implementing the approach. They have recipe books that call for added sugar, or breading, or the oils called for in the recipes are not healthful ones.

Now Diane Sanfilppo has written a book called Practical Paleo: A Customized Approach to Health and a Whole-Foods Lifestyle. It is the missing manual for Paleo.

Bottom Line - E4E Take:

Practical Paleo: A Customized Approach to Health and a Whole-Foods Lifestyle  by Diane Sanfilippo contains the why, what, and how of a paleo, ancestral-style diet. It is well-organized, beautiful to behold, and contains a ton of great information.

Even if you do not buy into the whole paleo movement, you can't go wrong with this book. Robb Wolf does the foreword. I think he is a highly principled person who would not put his mark on anything less than a top-rate product. It has 30-day meal plans for various goals, and all the recipes and ingredient lists you need to back it up. And keep in mind that paleo is not about caveman re-enactment, the main point is to eat healthful, natural foods that are nutritionally dense. That is not a fad diet. It's a good diet.

The book seems aimed especially at newbies to paleo, but even people who have been paleo for a while will benefit from the meal plans (and the lifestyle suggestions) and the recipes.

I notice that the macronutrient (fat, protein, and carbohydrate) ratios she recommends are pretty consistent with what I have recommended in the past (I recommended a bit more protein and less fat than she does). So maybe I like it because of confirmation bias, but more interesting is that Diane gets there by concentrating on food quality rather than macronutrients.

This book is a tour de force. I am ordering copies for my my kids and some friends. Buy pre-release and you get a discount.

Full disclaimer: I received a review copy of the book pre-release at no charge. I recognize that this can induce a bias. I have no financial or other interest in the success of the book unless you click the links to Amazon in the post, and even then it would amount to less than $1.00.

If you do want to order this (or any) book, I encourage you to go to Latest in Paleo scroll down a little and launch your Amazon search session with the keywords "Practical Paleo" from there. He does a really good service to the paleo community and we might as well give him a buck instead of Amazon.

The Book:

Diane Sanfilippo of the BalancedBites website has released a new book called Practical Paleo: A Customized Approach to Health and a Whole-Foods Lifestyle.

The book is gorgeous, and even just thumbing through the book you are guaranteed to learn something.

It contains everything you need to know about living a more healthy life following paleo/ancestral principles.

Following is a rundown of the table of contents with some commentary:

There are three parts to the book.

Part 1: The Why - Food and Your Body
What is Paleo
Everything We've Been Taught About Good Nutrition is Wrong
Paleo at Home: Shopping for Groceries - includes some great lists of foods that are considered paleo and information about their quality
Paleo in Public: Restaurants and Parties
On the Go: On the Road or in the Air
Your Digestive System
Is Your Gut Leaky?
Blood Sugar Regulation
Frequently Asked Questions

In Part 1, Diane talks about what paleo is, why conventional recommendations are flawed, and provides a bunch of practical tips for shopping eating out, and what to do when you're not at home. Then she goes into some detail on the science of why it is important, specifically dealing with digestive/gut health and blood sugar regulation and how those are in turn related to cardiovascular health, neurological damage, etc.

She talks a lot about questions and potential objections to paleo, including calcium, fiber, anti-nutrients, inflammation,  and cholesterol. She has good references including Robb Wolf, Mat Lalonde, Alessio Fasano, and Chris Kresser (among others) and information. I believe that the science is good.

Part 2: 30-Day Meal Plans
Autoimmune Conditions
Blood Sugar Regulation
Digestive Health
Thyroid Health
Multiple Sclerosis, Fibromyalgia, and Chronic Fatigue
Neurological Health
Heart Health
Cancer Recovery
Athletic Performance
Fat Loss
Squeaky Clean Paleo

Each of these sections contains information on overall diet and lifestyle recommendations (what to include and avoid), supplements and herbs to consider, important nutrients, then 30 days of three meals per day. These are not necessarily 90 unique meals, she does include leftovers.

The practical approach of targeting specific issues is innovative and very useful.

Part 3: Recipes
Kitchen Basics
Breakfast
Poultry
Beef & Bison
Seafood
Lamb
Pork
Sides & Salads
Sauces & Dips
Treats & Sweets

Recipes are about half of the book with almost 200 pages (over 120 recipes). We have tried a few of them at home and so far, so good. Our favorite is the Italian-style stuffed peppers. I am confident that we will cook many meals form this book over time. The photography is excellent.

The author's FAQ can be found here.

Diane has:
a blog, Balanced Bites
a facebook page, and
a twitter account. ( @balancedbites )