23 January 2018

Dr. Malcolm Kendrick's Series on What Causes Heart Disease

Malcolm Kendrick is a very smart guy.

Dr Kendrick graduated from medical school in Aberdeen and trained as a General Practitioner in Scotland. After ten years he split his time between General Practice and education. On the doctor side, Malcolm currently lives and works in Cheshire in General Practice, Intermediate Care and Out of Hours. On the education side, Malcolm set up the online educational system for the European Society of Cardiology, working with the European Commission and also set up the first website for the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) in the UK.

Malcolm is an original member of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine in Oxford and of The International Network of Cholesterol Sceptics (THINCS). The latter comprises a group of scientists, doctors, and researchers who share the belief that cholesterol does not cause cardiovascular disease. This is the field of medicine for which Malcolm is best known.

His long-term interest in the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease has resulted in many publications in journals such as the BMJ, Medical Hypotheses, Pulse, and PharmacoEconomics. His breadth and depth of expertise in this area led to his election to Who’s Who in 2009.

The Great Cholesterol Con was the book that firmly placed Malcolm on the world stage of the ‘diet-cholesterol-heart’ hypothesis and his army of followers are eagerly awaiting his next bout of wit and wisdom. Malcolm blogs at drmalcolmkendrick.org and lectures by invitation. Married with two children and two cats, Malcolm would like more people to challenge the status quo, and never just accept the party line. He likes to ski, golf, sail.

He is a practicing doctor in Scotland and an author.
His website home
His about page
Wikipedia article
His books on Amazon

From the book titles, you can see that he is not a mainstream go-with-the-flow kind of guy.

Please look at his writings, you will see a no-nonsense follow the data approach. It's good reading.

He started a series called What Causes Heat Disease in January 2016. As of January 21, 2018, he is on installment number 44. It is not simple to find all of the links to each of the posts in sequence, so I have made it a project to do that.

It is provocative, super-interesting, and need I say it is also quite different from what your cardiologist will tell you. I got up to 10, then decided to catalog this. I'm going to reread from the start and put a little about the content of each as I progress.
  1. What Causes Heart Disease I, 01/18/2016, Introduction. Everything causes heart disease; nothing causes heart disease. What is heart disease (Cardiovascular disease or CVD)? CVD is caused by a process, not a thing. "My simple credo is that, if your hypothesis cannot explain everything about CVD you cannot explain anything."
  2. What Causes Heart Disease II, 01/21/2016, Framing the problem. Start with "What kills people?" There are many complications and variations. The "reverse hypothesis," i.e. the primary cause of a heart attack is simply a blood clot blocking a coronary artery, has two contradictions. An infarction does not mean that a clot develops, and collateral circulation develops. Ischemic stroke and MI have the same underlying disease process. It is very complex.
  3. What Causes Heart Disease III, 01/25/2016, Data from different countries used different standards so is unreliable. Starting at the end--the formation of the final, often fatal, blood clot. Surprisingly, he adds statins to the list of things that reduce the risk of blood clots (although not by much). But not because of their impact on cholesterol, but rather because of anti-coagulant effects--like aspirin. He hints at another effect statins have. Now the controversy--the two steps to CVD are considered to be 1. formation of an atherosclerotic plaque, and 2. clot formation on top of the plaque. But it's strange that the two processes share many risk factors. Perhaps they "are simply two different manifestations of exactly the same underlying disease process." Occam's razor.
  4. What Causes Heart Disease IV, 02/08/2016, Lots of causes of CVD, but only 1 underlying process. He covers the first of four stages that culminate in the development of an atherosclerotic plaque that culminates in the final fatal blood clot--endothelial damage. He looks at three aspects: Nitric Oxide synthesis, consequences of endothelial damage, and tissue factor (a clotting agent). NO is created in the endothelium. It relaxes blood vessels and is an anti-coagulant. Perhaps the single most powerful single factor to increase NO synthesis is sunlight. Wow! The implications of this alone are tremendous. Biomechanical stress (turbulent blood flow, stretching and bending of the blood vessel, high shear stress, high blood pressure, rapid blood flow, points where the blood has to change direction violently) is thought to be the highest damaging factor. Tissue factor is inside all blood vessel walls and immediately forms a clot if there is damage. Once the damage is covered, the clot stops. Then what happens to it? To be continued in the next part.
  5. What Causes Heart Disease V, 02/13/2016, Start with some background about how the hypotheses of CVD developed and changed. How does the clot get inside the arterial wall? Endothelial cells grow over the clot. But now you just have a clot in the wall of the blood vessel. This doesn't seem too smart. What happens to the clot? If your body is working right, some of the new endothelial cells convert into macrophages and clear up the clot itself as the new endothelium is forming. But if the damage/clot process happens too rapidly or repeatedly in the same place, the body simply can't keep up with the cleanup. Then the clot turns into "a pulpy mass containing cholesterol crystals and fatty globules."
  6. What Causes Heart Disease VI, 02/21/2016, Recapping, there is a four-step process that happens with CVD. Endothelial damage, clot formation/dysfunctional clot formation, clot repair/dysfunctional clot repair, the final fatal blood clot. Plasminogen in clots causes the destruction of the clot by slicing apart the fibrinogen (good). Plasminogen activation inhibitor (PAI) prevents that. Triglycerides enhance PAI and therefore impair breakdown of the clots! Therefore hypertriglyceridemia is bad. Fibrinogen. From the Scottish Heart study, High cholesterol has no effect, but "‘Fibrinogen is a strong predictor of coronary heart disease, fatal or non-fatal, new or recurrent, and of death from an unspecified cause, for both men and women."  The study found that "Unexpectedly, individuals with low plasma fibrinogen had a low incidence of coronary events even when serum LDL cholesterol was high."  Smoking, stress, sleep apnea, diabetes and depression all raise fibrinogens. Lp(a) is a type of LDL, but with a "backward-threaded" plasminogen molecule. So Lp(a) folded into a blood clot blocks plasminogen, preventing a clot from breaking itself down. Aside, LP(a) is found in mammals that do not produce their own Vitamin C, it is to provide a permanent plug for holes in tissue because scurvy prevents collagen production. Lp(a) level in the blood is thought to be largely genetic, but there is evidence that ensuring more than minimum vitamin C and fish oil (2)/flaxseed can reduce Lp(a).
  7. What Causes Heart Disease VII, 03/01/2016, Yes heart disease is multifactorial, i.e. many things can cause it, but they all trigger the same process. If you can't do this, your hypothesis is off. IT's not the cholesterol. He focused on blood clotting factors and found that factors that increased clotting were bad and vice versa. HDL inhibits platelet activation in the endothelium and increases NO production. ‘Plaques are clots, and clots are plaques. It is all due to blood clotting.’  It is staring you in the face. It has been staring humanity in the face for over a hundred and sixty years. Ever since Rokitansky and Virchow started to look closely. There is no cholesterol in the story. It's something that just happens to be there.
  8. What Causes Heart Disease VIII, 03/10/2016,  The body can heal plaques. (Probably not once calcified, but that is another issue). This chapter relates to the third step--Clot repair / dysfunctional clot repair. Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs, repair stem cells) are an important part of the picture. Exercise, l-arginine/citrulline, ACE inhibitors and statins all increase NO levels and EPCs. "...statins do have some benefits in CVD. Not enough, in my opinion, to overcome the damage that they can do. However, the benefit is there, it is real.I knew it could be nothing to do with the impact of statins on lowering LDL, as LDL has nothing to do with CVD (well, almost nothing). So there had to be another effect. And that effect is, in my opinion, almost entirely to do with the ability of statins to increase nitric oxide (NO) production..." Many people saw that statins reduced cholesterol and improved CVD outcomes. Therefore, there was an assumption that correlation = causation and low cholesterol is the key.
  9. What Causes Heart Disease IX, 03/16/2016, Modern medicine's disease paradigm has forced the shoe onto the wrong foot. Confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance take over and researchers make excuses for contradictory data. "Me; ‘The French have higher cholesterol levels than the Russians and one-tenth the rate of CVD.' A.N. Expert: ‘The French are protected by drinking red wine and eating lightly cooked vegetables and eating garlic.’ is an example of an ad hoc hypothesis. A new type of study called a teleoanalysis was brought in to try to legitimize ad hoc hypotheses. In a nutshell, they create a hypothesis, assume a study has been done and declare victory. In other words, they make shit up. "...teleoanalysis provides the answer to questions that would be obtained from studies that have not been done and often, for ethical and financial reasons, could never be done.’ Lol.
  10. What Causes Heart Disease X, 03/22/2016, Calcification in arteries. Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC). The best way to look at calcification is as an end stage of plaque development. It may actually be a protective mechanism that puts a hard cap on top of the plaque to prevent it from escaping into the bloodstream and clogging other blood vessels. Not all plaques calcify. Vitamins K and D seem to be protective, Warfarin seems to increase calcification. Calcification seems to have the effect of making plaques more stable. Conclusions: 1. After the age of 40-50, if your CAC score is zero, your risk of CVD is low. 2. If your CAC score is high, it means you have been developing plaques for quite a while, and your risk is higher. "[However, bear in mind that CAC represents your history, not necessarily your future]." 3. Calcification can reverse. Vitamin K2 seems to help this. 4. Calcification is not a cause of CVD. Rather it seems to be an end state of the process. 5. There is no evidence that reversing calcification improves CVD risk. "But it seems likely there would be benefit."
  11. Sunbathing is Good for You, 3/23/2016, ‘Results: Sunburn, high intermittent sun exposure, skin awareness histories and solar elastosis were statistically significantly inversely associated with death from melanoma.’‘Conclusion: Sun exposure is associated with increased survival from melanoma.’
  12. What Causes Heart Disease XI, 03/26/2016, A new study has come out about people with coronary artery disease (CAD). The headline says "Depressed CAD Patients May be at Higher Risk For MI, Death"  CAD patients with depression are much more likely to die. Depression creates a dysfunction in hormonal response to stress (HPA-axis). Abnormal cortisol levles--low in the morning, high the rest of the time. Cortisol is a direct antagonist to insulin, and severe depression can actually cause T2 diabetes! IT can also cause clotting abnormalities: higher fibrinogen, higher Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor, which prevents clot repair. "Diabetes/raised blood sugar levels are directly damaging to the endothelium. Raised fibrinogen and PAI-1 are very powerful risk factors for CVD, primarily because they make the blood more likely to clot, and the clot more difficult to clear up." 
  13. Lower Cholesterol Has No Effect On Heart Disease, 4/24/2016, Hope3 trial for rosuvastatin. Showed no difference between treatment and placebo group. Accelerate trial tested evacetrapib. "Despite reducing levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL, or “bad” cholesterol) by 37 percent and raising levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL, or “good” cholesterol) by 130 percent, the drug failed to reduce rates of major cardiovascular events, including heart attack, stroke, angina or cardiovascular death." "Researchers, looking at those living in Framingham, in the US, found that younger men with high cholesterol levels were more likely to die from CVD. From this they concluded. Raised cholesterol causes CVD. ACCELERATE clearly falsifies their simplistic hypothesis. It is a black swan." The evidence is very clear: increased cholesterol is not a cause nor associated with CVD. Greater cholesterol lowering using polyunsaturated fat, increases the risk of death. Yet here's what the British Heart Foundation, as well as other heart disease associations, say. "Here is what the BHF currently say about saturated fats: ‘Swap these for unsaturated fats. Eating too much saturated fat increases the amount of cholesterol in your blood.’"
  14. What Causes Heart Disease XII, 04/25/2016, The four-step process is really overlapping processes. Now, the role of lipoproteins. Bottom Line: High levels of LDL increase the risk of blood clots forming (oxidized LDL is really bad), High levels of HDL reduce the risk of blood clots forming, VLDL/triglycerides increase the risk of blood clots forming. All this is not because cholesterol clogs the arteries, but rather because of their impact on clotting. So lipoproteins do have a role in this. Kendrick apparently  believes the role is small (supported by research as well, see links below.)
  15. What Causes Heart Disease XIII, 05/07/2016, Heart Disease and Inflammation - Take nothing at face value. Many leading researchers have enormous financial stakes in drug trials--often undisclosed. Inflammation as a cause of CVD is not an unreasonable hypothesis, but... There seems to be an association, but is it causal. Inflammation is actually a healing process. If you sprain your ankle, the damage causes an injury and healing process that results in swelling and pain. The swelling and pain did not cause the swollen ankle. "Whenever I see anyone stating that inflammation is a cause of anything I simply change the word inflammation to the word ‘healing,’ to see how sensible it then sounds." Autoimmune disease, e.g. rheumatoid arthritis and asthma are the result of runaway inflammation, and anti-inflammatory can help. RICE for injuries is now thought to be misguided because "‘Anything That Reduces Inflammation Also Delays Healing [I cannot resist stating that, this is because inflammation is healing]"   People who take corticosteroids may get "iatrogenic Cushing's syndrome." This anti-inflammatory regime increase CVD risk. "In short, if CVD is primarily a disease of inflammation, then potent anti-inflammatory agents ought to reduce the risk. Instead, they increase it massively. There is no doubt that inflammation is associated with CVD. Equally, if you measure C-reactive protein (a marker of inflammation), a high level is associated with a higher risk of CVD. However, it is not a cause, and if you try to reduce inflammation you will almost certainly increase the risk of CVD, not decrease it. Ergo. Inflammation is a sign of active CVD."
  16. What Causes Heart Disease XIV, 05/18/2016, Age and sex are two of the most prominent risk factors associated with CVD. There is no doubt that there is an association and a strong one. The calculators used by doctors generally overstate CVD risk. "...if the two most powerful risk factors you have for CVD, cannot be explained, are not explained, then you really have a major problem. Even if you cannot even comprehend that you do."If you cannot explain why age, and gender, cause CVD… you cannot explain CVD."
  17. What Causes Heart Disease XV, 05/31/2016, Everyone "knows" pizza is bad for you.But there was a study assessing the impact of pizza on heart disease. It showed that pizza helps. Upon discovery that the study was done by Italians, the expert said, "Oh yes, but Italian pizzas are much healthier than those in the UK." Pulled straight out of thin air, ad hoc hypotheses like these are extremely common. "There was no point in saying what things may, or may not, cause CVD – and compiling an ever-lengthening list of ‘risk’ factors. I had to work out the process through which any factor may operate, both causal and protected." HE questioned, "Can you link any and all factors, known to cause CVD by their impact on one of two things: Endothelial damage (which triggers blood clot formation) or Increasing blood coagulability (making clots more like to form, become bigger and/or less easy to break down). For all the lists of the usual suspects, he had a "reasonable" view of the mechanism associated with clotting. Warfarin was one of his potential black swans because despite functioning as an anticoagulant, it appeared to have little or no impact on CVD risk. His belief is through its connection with Vitamin K, Warfarin inhibits normal "intrinsic" clotting, whereas the clots that occur in CVD starts with the damage to the endothelium and subsequent exposure of blood to the tissue factor, so no effect. This is an extrinsically driven clotting mechanism. But Warfarin also inhibits the cleanup of clots through the Vitamin K channel. E4E query: It is possible that this explanation of Warfarin is just another ad hoc hypothesis? A "just-so" story? Who knows. Kendrick goes on to say " in the spirit of true scientific endeavour, I welcome as many attacks/contradictions as people can think of. What does not kill a scientific hypothesis can only make it stronger."
  18. What Causes Heart Disease XVI, 06/08/2017, He discusses how sickle cell anemia and migraine headaches both cause CVD through their link with the clotting system. From an article in BMJ, "Cardiovascular disease was 50% more likely among the women with migraine. Heart attack was 39% more likely, stroke 62% more likely, and these women were 73% more likely to have a revascularization procedure." There's not much research in the area, but he found that migraine is associated with, or causes, blood clotting abnormalities – and also damage to the endothelium in one study. He also cites a case in which Warfarin was successfully used to treat migraines. He challenges the reader to suggest another mechanism besides clotting that is consistent with this set of information. Sickle cell disease (SCD) is the other topic of this post. There is a strong association between SCD and CVD. The abnormal shape of the red blood cells causes both clotting problems and increased endothelial damage. "...sickling process leads to vascular occlusion, tissue hypoxia and subsequent reperfusion injury, thus inducing inflammation and endothelial injury. This causes a blunted response to nitric oxide (NO) synthase inhibition." "In one short section on SCD we have virtually everything I have been writing about in this series so far. There is: Reduced NO synthesis, Damage to the endothelium, Increased risk of blood clotting in general, Increased platelet activation and adhesion, Inhibition of endothelial cell repair and proliferation, Increased risk of CVD and accelerated atherosclerotic plaque development." Sickling also causes hypertension in the pulmonary arteries which is extremely rare. Therefore SCD must be a very powerful contributor to CVD.
  19. What Causes Heart Disease XVII, 06/19/2016, Epidemiology of CVD. In 1948, the World Health Organization (WHO) came up with standard codes for the International Classification of Disease (ICD). Although the codes were standardized, it is not clear if the standards used were the same everywhere. In fact, it's certain they weren't. At least it was a step in the right direction and it is [probably improving over time. The MONICA project attempted to standardize this. CVD deaths have been declining in the UK since 1980, the introduction and increasing use of statins had little or no impact on the decrease. OTOH, Latvia and Russia had CVD death charts that map well onto social and political upheaval.
  20. What Causes Heart Disease XVIII, 07/12/2016, Talking about cholesterol. Here's the bottom line: a. LDL is pro-coagulant and – at very high levels e.g. in FH – increases the risk of CVD [though it is difficult to disentangle this from intertwined genetic pro-coagulant factors]. b. VLDL (triglycerides) are pro-coagulant, and increases the risk of CVD. c. HDL is anticoagulant and protects against CVD. Which then brings onto statins, and how they work. First to re-iterate that statins do reduce the risk of CVD [Something, I have never disputed]. However, they do it not by lowering LDL, but because they have anticoagulant effects. Not that potent, about the same as aspirin, but the effect does exist.
  21. What Causes Heart Disease XIX, 07/31/2016, Ancel Keys and the diet heart hypothesis. Sixty years ago Keys proposed that consuming cholesterol raised blood cholesterol, which then caused heart disease. He later changed his story to saturated fat raising cholesterol, thereby... Many did not agree with him, but he was very influential and his view became accepted as dogma, and set the agenda for discussion of CVD. Kendrick does noit see any eating behavior that powerfully links diet to CVD. "The only link that I can see is that people who eat a higher carbohydrate diet are more likely to become obese and develop diabetes. Or, perhaps I should say, develop diabetes and become obese." "...[Keys] certainly succeeded in anchoring almost all discussions within the wider hypothesis that CVD is primarily due to diet. It is not." A lot of people in the comments to this post insist that CVD does have to do with diet. e4e take: I believe that Kendrick deliberately overstated the case against diet being a cause of CVD. I think there is a subtle distinction at play: unless you are eating poison, the specifics of what you eat have little to do with the process of CVD. At the same time, deficiencies of certain nutrients can and do enhance the CVD process. Changing your dietary patterns may change your overall health and shift your nutrient intake patterns. He did state in an earlier post that lack of vitamin C causes scurvy and can impact Lp(a) expression. If I were to attempt a slightly more pedantic statement, perhaps something like, "Assuming you have adequate intakes of important nutrients and are meeting your body's needs at a reasonable calorie balance, the specifics of your food intake have little impact on CVD health at a population level."
  22. What Causes Heart Disease XX, 08/21/2016, Stress/strain. Stress is what creates a response, strain is the biologic and chemical processes that result in the body from stress. Strain can be measured by dysfunction  in the HPA axis (hypothalamic, pituitary, adrenal).  A normal cortisol secretion rises in the morning, goes down, rises at lunch, goes down and up quite a lot for the rest of the day. It is, basically, flexible. An unhealthy cortisol secretion is more of a flat line. It does not peak in the morning, then it does not fall so much. "...hypothesis being that if someone is exposed to repeated activation of the HPA-axis it eventually becomes unable to cope. The system becomes damaged/inflexible." If you are exposed to constant negative stressors, you are likely to burn out your HPA-axis, you will end up with abnormal cortisol secretion, and suchlike. You will then develop central obesity, high blood pressure, high VLDL levels, low HDL levels, high levels of fibrinogen, and many other clotting factors. All of these things will increase endothelial damage, stimulate blood clotting and impair the repair systems. Country level data on Latvia and Lithuania may be good evidence for the impact of strain on CVD.
  23. What Causes Heart Disease XXI, 09/21/2016
  24. What Causes Heart Disease XXII, No XXII exists
  25. What Causes Heart Disease XXIII, 12/24/2016
  26. What Causes Heart Disease XXIV, 01/16/2017
  27. What Causes Heart Disease XXV, 02/13/2017
  28. What Causes Heart Disease XXVI, 02/15/2017
  29. What Causes Heart Disease XXVII, 03/06/2017
  30. What Causes Heart Disease XXVIII, 03/17/2017
  31. What Causes Heart Disease XXIX, 04/01/2017
  32. What Causes Heart Disease XXIXb, 04/16/2017
  33. What Causes Heart Disease XXX, 06/06/2017
  34. What Causes Heart Disease XXXI, 06/21/2017
  35. What Causes Heart Disease XXXII, 07/12/2017
  36. What Causes Heart Disease XXXIII, 07/29/2017
  37. What Causes Heart Disease XXXIV, 08/09/2017
  38. What Causes Heart Disease XXXV, 08/19/2017
  39. What Causes Heart Disease XXXVI, 09/05/2017
  40. What Causes Heart Disease XXXVII, 09/16/2017
  41. What Causes Heart Disease XXXVIII, 09/24/2017
  42. What Causes Heart Disease XLIX, 10/09/2017
  43. What Causes Heart Disease XL, 10/27/2017
  44. What Causes Heart Disease XLI, 11/12/2017
  45. What Causes Heart Disease XLII, 12/09/2017
  46. What Causes Heart Disease XLIII, 12/29/2017
  47. What Causes Heart Disease part 44, 01/12/2018
  48. What Causes Heart Disease part forty-five, 1/27/2018, There are periodic studies that show that taking vitamins is bad. There is little economic benefit to studying the effects of vitamins. They're all off patent. Optimal doses are also unclear; typically we know the minimum dose to prevent disease. Nobody died in 2010 from taking vitamins; OTOH, 328,000 people died from prescribed medicines. Supplements to consider include: Vitamin K2 5µg, Thiamine 7mg, Folic acid 7µg, Potassium 50mg, Magnesium 50mg, L-arginine 600mg, L-carnitine  50mg, L-citrulline 7mg, Co-enzyme Q10 3mg, then add Vitamin D and Vitamin C and multiply everything by 4x per day.
  49. What Causes Heart Disease part forty-five B - an addendum, 1/29/2018, Oops. A new paper just came out about Magnesium. IT is much more important than he believed.
  50. What causes heart disease part 46, 2/14/20018

Peter Attia's view. Dr. Attia is another very smart guy. His view is somewhat different than Dr. Kendrick's view. Attia focuses on the end stage as being the infarction, rather than the clot breaking. There are also other differences.

Kendrick's view is that the clot occurs mainly (although not exclusively) because of physical damage to the endothelium. In "normal" circumstances, most of the clot will get cleaned up by the body, perhaps leaving behind some scar tissue. But if the clot has some malformation, or the person has an imbalance in some of the important blood factors, the cleanup either does not occur, or is poorly done. At that point, the vessel can block, or the clot may break loose because of defects in the clot.

Attia, on the other hand, seems to regards CVD as simply an inevitable outcome of age. Oxidation and damage happen inside the intima (the artery wall itself, behind the endothelium), then essentially spills over through the endothelium, where it clots, etc.

For me, Kendrick's view seems to hold together better. It contains both a pathology as well as a mechanism for reversing it if everything is working properly. Attia presents the damage as something that happens that cannot repair itself. I don't think that's the way the body usually works. Kendrick's view is that overall the body is doing its best to protect itself, but when it gets overloaded it simply can't keep up. This can be compared to the view that CVD is a horrible pathology.

In all likelihood, I am misinterpreting much (and perhaps they are saying something quite similar but explaining it differently), but Kendrick's view seems more biologically consistent with the way the body usually works.

Other posts during the series on What Causes Heart Disease.

Duane Graveline, 09/06/2016, Duane was a doctor who trained to be an astronaut. He was prescribed statins and had severe side-effects. He researched and studied these effects and developed the SpaceDoc website. He passed away.
Medical censorship in the twenty first century, 9/11/2016,

17 February 2017

Office Space and Creativity - What Makes the Perfect Office

Fascinating post about how office space affects creativity and productivity. by Tim Harford

The bottom line is that there is no evidence that fancy architecture and design help. What does helo is letting people have control over their environment.

25 January 2017

Scott Adams' Take on Post-inauguration Trump

As you may be aware, Scott Adams of Dilbert predicted a Trump victory in August 2015, well before he won the Republican primary. His basis was that Trump is the best persuader he has ever seen. He did many blog posts about his thought process and Trump's progress and strategies. I tracked all his posts at this link.

He stuck to his guns all the way through, even in the last two weeks before the vote when all the serious polls were predicting a Clinton victory.

He admonished the readers of his blog to adopt a different mindset, a different way of thinking about persuasion and election campaign tactics and strategy.

Perhaps he was just lucky, but I don't think that's the case. I believe that Scott saw something that was opaque to almost everyone else.

The other post got too long and was dealing with how Trump got elected. I am going to continue tracking Scott's posts post-inauguration in this post. This time they will be in reverse chronological order - newest first.

February 2018
What if the News Reported Only Facts, 2/21/2018
The Charlottesville Fake News Was the Best Persuasion Play of the Past Year, 2/14/2018

January 2018
Persuasion Reading List – Updated 1/18, Jan 24 (Posted)
How to Make Your Opponents Try (and fail) to Prove a Negative, Jan 20
Are the Fake News Awards Persuasive?, Jan 18
How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East, Jan 17
President Trump Earns the Highest Presidential Approval Level of All Time, Jan 9
Is President Trump’s Nuclear Button Tweet a Sign of Insanity?, Jan 3
How President Trump Changed Your Imagination, Jan 2

December 2017
The Demolition President, Dec 28
How to Determine If You Should Talk About Politics in Public, Dec 22
Why Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Republicans are Natural Allies (or should be), Dec 11

November 2017
President Trump’s 2017 Report Card (first draft), Nov 13
Win Bigly Bonus Chapter, Nov 6, Chapter on Hypnotism from Scott's new book
Persuading Terrorist Cowards, Nov 1

October 2017
How to Know President Trump is in Your Head, Oct 19
How to Make a Little Rocket Man Costume for Halloween, Oct 19
The North Korea Reframe, Oct 17
Low Public Approval of President Trump Yet Unusually High Consumer Confidence. Hmmm…, Oct 16
Affirmations, Positive Thinking, Trump, and Norman Vincent Peale, Oct 13
The Worst Gun Control Arguments, Oct 6

September 2017
The Universe is Winking at You, Sep 22
I Explain the Persuasion Techniques President Trump is using on The Wall and DACA, Sep 14
Win Bigly - Available for pre-order, Sep 11, Scott's new book about persuasion
When to Trust the Experts (Climate and Otherwise), Sep 11
Why North Korea and the United States are Near War, Sep 5

August 2017
Leadership is Breaking Out All Over, Aug 31 Just a link to a periscope video.
The Magical Thinking Opposition, Aug 22
Checking My Six Month Prediction - Did it Age Well?, Aug 20
Do We Really Need “Moral Leadership” from the White House?, Aug 19
How To Know You’re In a Mass Hysteria Bubble, Aug 17
The People’s Plan to Fix Health Care, Aug 7

July 2017
People Keep Telling Me to Stop Blogging about North Korea, Jul 31
Another Way to Make Mexico Pay for the Wall?, Jul 30
Can a Nation Attack a Company?, Jul 30
The Turn to “Effective, but we don’t like it.”, Jul 30
Health Care is a System, Not a Goal, Jul 28, "McCain did what heroes do. He took a bullet to prevent Congress from ignoring the wishes of half the country." "[Trump's] strongest play as a negotiator involved waiting until Congress utterly and completely failed. That almost didn’t happen last night. It took a war hero to finish the job. "
I Tell You Why President Trump is on the Verge of Total Victory, Jul 25
How “Confident” are Intelligence Agencies that Russia Interfered with the Election?, Jul 23
I’m Not Your Pope (But Thanks for Asking), Jul 21
Listen to My Conversation with Sam Harris – About President Trump, Jul 19
I Tell You How Citizens Can Fix Health Care (Now that Congress Failed), Jul 18
I Teach You How to Take a Meeting with a Russian Lawyer. Also Some Kid Rock Laughs., Jul 16
My Chat About Russia With Tucker Carlson, Jul 12
People Who Can’t Recognize Humor (literally), Jul 9
North Korea is an Information Problem Disguised as a Military Problem, Jul 9
International Relations in a Time of Nukes and Plenty, Jul 8
Solving the North Korea Situation, Jul 5
My Exciting Periscope Playlist, Jul 3

June 2017

How President Trump’s Tweet about Morning Joe Will Destroy Civilization, Jun 30
Did Syria use Chemical Weapons in Khan Shaykhun?, Jun 30
The Only Way to Fix Healthcare Insurance in the U.S., Jun 27
President Trump’s Idea to Put Solar Panels on the Wall, Jun 22
Why the New Healthcare Bill Will Be a Loser, Jun 22
Russia Hacked our Election! (So what?), Jun 13
The Comey Fog, Jun 8
Solar Panels on the Wall?, Jun 7
Most Problems are Information Problems, Jun 5
Helping the Terrorists Recruit, Jun 4, Change the frame. ISIS is a bunch of losers.
An Example of Cognitive Dissonance, Jun 3, The climate denial cartoon was a cognitive dissonance trap. Did you fall for it?
Betting on Climate Change, Jun 2, If it was so bad, literally planet destroying with support from a broad spectrum of business leaders, why did the market respond positively?

May 2017
The Kathy Griffin Controversy, May 31, "You and I get to live in the movies in our heads until your script and mine come into conflict. That’s what happened with the Griffin photo." and "The takeaway here should not be so much about Griffin. The takeaway is that a room full of people involved in the photoshoot did not see this as a huge problem from the start. They were living a different movie."
Covfefe, May 31, The nation needed a laugh break.
Going After the Families of Terrorists, May 25, It is possible to go after them without going after them. But maybe we should...
The Time I Nudged Climate Scientists into Debunking their Own Models, May 23, Climate scientists try to debunk Scott's criticisms, but show their cognitive dissonance.
Goodbye ISIS, Hello Losers, May 23, Branding Isis as Losers will cripple them
Time to End Presidential Press Briefings?, Are press briefings really worth the time and effort? Perhaps there's a better way.
The Short Attention Span President, May 20, Is it short attention span or focusing on the important? How can you tell the difference?
The Slow-Motion Assassination of President Trump, May 17
A Quick Look at President Trump and the Big Picture, May 16
How to Know You Won a Political Debate on the Internet, May 16, Not about Trump, but interesting read for the readers of E4E. Look for the cognitive dissonance tells.
The Comey Firing, May 9
Where’s My Immigration Prediction Model?, May 8
The Healthcare Confusopoly, May 4, "...refuse to re-elect any politician who votes for a health care bill that YOU don’t understand. If you don’t understand a healthcare bill, that means it is designed to screw you."
The Resistance changes its attack from “Russian Puppet” to “Trump is Crazy” - Which Works Best?, May 4
Pre-Bribing a President, May 3
Using Persuasion to Create Assets Out of Nothing, May 2
The North Korean Weapons Test Pattern, May 1

April 2017
President Trump’s First 100 Days, Apr 25
How a Systems-Thinking President Can Settle the Climate Science Debate, Apr 21
Big Red Flag for Cognitive Dissonance, Apr 21, Not Trump, but good intro for the next post. Climate scientists probably believe they have convinced about half of the public to their side using their graphs and logic and facts. That’s not the case. They convinced half the public by using fear persuasion disguised as facts and logic. And it probably worked best with the people who have the least knowledge of how often complicated prediction models have failed in the past.
The Air Comes Out of the Anti-Trump Balloon, Apr 18
How to Structure a Deal With North Korea, Apr 17
U.S. and Russian Relationship at a Low?, Apr 13
The North Korea Reframe, Apr 12
Trusting Your Government in a Time of War, Apr 10
The Syrian Air Base Attack, Apr 7
The Syrian Gas Attack Persuasion, Apr 6
How a Hypnotist Sees a Verbal Slip, Apr 5

March 2017
The Systems President, Mar 29, You can look at the house healthcare efforts as a failure or as a step towards an ultimately successful health care effort.
Trump and Healthcare, Mar 25, Not really about healthcare, but rather Trump gets promoted from perception of Hitler to merely incompetent
My Take on Wiretapping, Trump, and Comey, Mar 20
How to Leak Like a Master Persuader, Mar 16
Tracking My Persuasion, Mar 14, Another Not Trump article, more an ad for his book.
Two More Movies on One Screen, Mar 13 Not about Trump, but definitely about persuasion.
Could Cognitive Scientists Eliminate ISIS?, Mar 9
Income Inequality, Mar 9
Wiretapping Word-Thinking, Mar 7
Am I Predicting or Influencing?, Mar 5
Dopamine Puppets, Mar 2
I Talk about President Trump’s Speech on YouTube, Mar 1
President Trump’s Speech Last Night, Mar 1, Scott things Trump killed the SOTU

February 2017
Persuasion Advice for African-Americans, Feb 21
De-hypnotizing a Climate Science Zombie, Feb 20
Trump and Sweden, Feb 20, Link to this youtube. Is Trump the crazy one, or are his critics?
Imaginary News, Feb 17
How to Evaluate a President, Feb 17
How to Persuade the Other Party, Feb 15
Good Example of Our Two-Movie Reality, Feb 12
About the 97% of Climate Scientists, Feb 10
Sam Harris Induces Cognitive Dissonance in Ben Affleck, Feb 5
A Thought Experiment About Republicans, Feb 5
The Social Media Hive Mind, Feb 4
The Persuasion Advantage and Climate Science, Feb 4
Berkeley and Hitler, Feb 3
President Trump and the Other Countries, Feb 2, You can't tell the difference between rudeness and good negotiation based on limited information
Introducing the Chaos Drinking Game, Feb 1
Hypnotists Flips Pro-Choicers to Pro-Life in Seconds (I explain how), Feb 1
The Odds of Being Killed by an Immigrant, Feb 1

January 2017
Is President Trump Doing Management Wrong?, Jan 31
The Persuasion Filter Looks at Torture. Does it Work?, Jan 30
The Canadian Option, Jan 29
Be Careful What You Wish For (especially if it is Hitler), Jan 29
The Persuasion Filter and Immigration, Jan 27, Muslim ban is a negotiating tactic
Outrage Dilution, Jan 26 "And when Trump has created a hundred reasons to complain, do you know what impression will be left with the public? He sure got a lot done." Like it or not.
Battle of the Hats, Jan 24 (Comparing MAGA hats to Pussy hats from a persuasion perspective)

01 August 2016

21 December 2015

Scott Adams' Series on Donald Trump (Master Wizard Persuasion)

This is the pre-inauguration page.
If you are looking for the post-inauguration page, go to this link.

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame (Scott Adams' Amazon Page) has been doing a series of posts about Donald Trump since August of 2015. He is not endorsing Trump as President, but rather pointing out a different perspective on his hi-jinx. Edit: on Oct. 24, 2016, Scott endorsed Trump finally.

Scott's final post before the inaugurations links to this link, which is generated using WhenHub his new startup.

Please note: I will continue to update this post until the inauguration. At that point, I will start a new one. This time, I will put the newer posts at the top though. I think that works better.

I can't tell you if Adams is right about Trump's style and choices, but it is fascinating reading. So I decided to document and keep a running page with the Trump Persuasion series. You can also click on the hashtags on his blog, but I like to have this list.

For the record, I am not in any way endorsing Trump, or anyone else either. So what follows is a compilation of all of Scott's posts on Trump and his presidential run starting in July 2015.

Postscript: Scott got it right. Last August, he said that Trump had persuasion skills seldom seen. He said that Trump would win by a landslide. Not just the Republican primaries, but the general election. He stuck to that all the way through and asked his readers to keep an open mind and look at the world through a different lens. That lens has resulted in perhaps the only correct forecast in the World of this election. He did not hit every intermediate point perfectly, and the general election was not a landslide, but the perspective resulted in a correct prediction well before anybody saw it coming. He focused on the system and positioning that Trump used throughout.

Now moving forward what happens? More later.

July 2015
Outragists Attack Trump and Win, July 2, 2015 (It's possible that there are earlier posts, but this is as far as I went.

August 2015
How Trump Becomes President, Aug 5, 2015
Trump's Plan to Put a Ring Around Isis,  Aug 10, 2015
Clown Genius, Aug 13, 2015. Scott says this is the most important post.
Can We Call a Trump Puppet a Trumpet?, August 14, 2015
Wizard Wars, August 17, 2015. This is the post where Adams really lays out his hypothesis.
Political Reporters Cover a Business Candidate, August 19, 2015. Bonus Thought 4 - Trump will select the next President
Anchors Away, Aug 20, 2105
Trump VS Bush: Persuasion Wars, Aug 24, 2015
Trump Makes Univision Do The Perp Walk, Aug 25
The Third Way on Immigration (Sort of a Trump Post), August 26
Trump Persuasion Alert: Bible Dodge, Aug 26
Trump Persuasion Alert: The Bush-slayer Comment, Aug 27
Nate Silver Gives Trump 2% Chance of Getting Nominated, Aug 28
Trump and Godwin’s Law, Aug 28
Trump Engineers a Clinton Linguistic Kill Shot, Aug 31
Robots Read News - about Celebrity Apprentice, Aug 31

September 2015
Identifying the Smart Voters, Sep 1, 2015. All about Cognitive Dissonance
Trump: The “Bad System” Linguistic Bayonette, Sep 1
The Tells (for cognitive dissonance), Sep 3
Then You Own the Bank (part of my Trump Persuasion Series), Sep 3
The Time of Kings, Sep 4. Not about Trump specifically, but clever
“Nice Guy” - Part of my Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 5
Cognitive Dissonance: You be the Judge, Sep 5
How to Spot a Wizard, Sep 6
The “Outsider” Explanation - Part of my Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 7
Obama the Stealth Wizard, Sep 7
The Time of Kings - Explained, Sep 8. A follow-up to Time of Kings above.
A Demonstration of Persuasion - Part of my Trump Series, Sep 9
Unknown Wizard Delivers Linguistic Kill Shot via Twitter, Sep 9
Trump Engineers a Linguistic Kill Shot for Fiorina, Sep 10
Who is Smarter - the Smart People or the Dumb People? - Part of My Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 11
Odds of a Kanye West Presidency: 90%, Sep 12
The Trump Versus Sanders Match-up: Part of the Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 14
The Daily Beast Reports on My Trump Posts, Sep 14. Link to the Beast Article.
2-D Chess Players Take on a 3-D Chess Master (Part of my Trump Persuasion Series), Sep 15
Why Trump Insults People - Part of my Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 16
Wizard Attacks Wizard - The Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 17
Carly Fiorina and the Wizard Filter, Sep 17
When Wives Attack - Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 18
People Who Don’t Know How Business Works - Trump Persuasion Series. Sep 18
Trump Linguistic Kill Shot Alert!, Sep 18
Running Against a Branding Wizard - Trump Series, Sep 19
Thinking Past the Sale - Trump Persuasion Series, Sep 19
Checking My Gender Bias - Master Wizard Hypothesis, Sep 19
Calling Jimmy from the Third Dimension, Sep 20
Who is the Better Business Person - Trump or Fiorina?, Sep 21
Obama Vs. Iran - Who is the Wizard?, Sep 21
A Clarification, Sep 21
The “Reason” for Trump’s Success, Sep 23
The Persuasion Reading List, Sep 24, Scott's list of books about persuasion
Opinion Vs. Stupidity, Sep 25. Not about Trump, but interesting.
Violating the Wizard Prime Directive, Sep 27
History’s First Quadruple-Wizard, Sep 29

October 2016
One-on-One Match-ups - Trump Persuasion Series, Oct 1
Robots Read News Endorses Candidate, Oct 1
The American Gun Problem - And How a Master Wizard of Persuasion Could Fix it., Oct 4
Robots Read News - About Humans in Metal Cages, Oct 5
The Trump Confidence Thing, Oct 6. Here's the Politico link.
President Obama: Wizard or Failure?, Oct 6
My Explanation of Trump’s Persuasion Skills for Reason.com, Oct 6. Reason.com video clip
Tells for Cognitive Dissonance (with some Trump flavoring), Oct 9
Narcissistic Accuser Syndrome, Oct 10
Does Trump Linguistically Engineer His Insults?, Oct 11
Who Will Bill Clinton Vote for?, Oct 12
Master Wizard Filter on the Democratic Debate, Oct 14
Tony Robbins Explains How to Beat Trump, Oct 16
Trump’s Persuasiveness - per the Washington Post, Oct 18
Trump’s Third Act (Part of the Trump Persuasion Series), Oct 20
Master Wizard Filter Scorecard, Oct 20
Robots Read News - about Trump and Jeb, Oct 21
The Alpha in the Room, Oct 22
Master Wizard Filter - Netanyahu?, Oct 22, Link to referenced article.
The Case for a Trump Landslide (Part 1), Oct 23
How Persuasion Hides, Oct 24
Talking Like a Fourth-Grader (Part of my Trump Persuasion Series), Oct 25
How a Hypnotist Would Solve ISIS, Oct 26. Not Trump, but related.
Trump’s Town Hall Performance - Give Him a Grade, Oct 26
Economics and Expectations (with a Trump point), Oct 30
Trump’s Selfish Motives (Please explain them to me), Oct 31

November 2015
Why Donald Trump will Ruin the World, Nov 2
The Cage Fight President, Nov 5
The Upside of Ben Carson, Nov 6
Election Notes (Trump and Stuff), Nov 12
Trump on Carson, Nov 13
Cognitive Dissonance Update 1, Nov 16
Trump’s Current Odds, Nov 19
Trump Trouble Report, Nov 26
How Trump Can Solve Immigration, Nov 29

December 2015
Trump’s Favorability - (part of my Trump Persuasion series), Dec 2
My Prediction about My Predictions (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 3
What the Heck is Fascism?, Dec 4
How to Stop that Hitler-like Deportation You Fear, Dec 7
Risk Management - (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 8
My Offer to Stop Donald Trump, Dec 9
The Trump Immigration Surprise - the Trap is Half-Sprung, Dec 10
Master Persuader Update (Part of My Trump Series), Dec 11
Calling the Clinton Top (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 13
Immigration Without the Hate Part (Trump-related), Dec 14
A Voter’s Guide to Thinking, Dec 14
An Unusual Argument for Electing Hillary Clinton, Dec 15
Master Persuader Update - Slip of the Tongue (Trump series), Dec 15
The Lucky Hitler Hypothesis (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 16
The Master Persuader Filter on Michael Moore, Dec 18
Robots Read News about the Sanders Campaign Accessing Clinton Voter Data, Dec 18
Robots Read News - About Hitler’s Testicles, Dec 21 (Trump Humor)
And Then This Happened (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 21. Link to Salon article.
A Deeply Unscientific Test of Your Political Bias (Trump Persuasion Series), Dec 22
Target Practice for Robots, Dec 23
The Master Persuader Filter and Trump’s Schlong, Dec 24
Master Persuader Scorecard Update - Clinton Top?, Dec 25
Is Iowa a Caucus or a Mental Health Problem? (Trump Master Persuader Series), Dec 27
The Time I Got Promoted to Nobody, Dec 29
Ranking the Best Political Pundits of 2015, Dec 30
Trump’s Language Skills Analyzed, Dec 30

January 2016
Master Persuader Scorecard Update: 10-out-of-10 Coming?, Jan 2, 2016
Master Persuasion Hypothesis - (Try this one at home), Jan 3
Persuasion or Coincidence?, Jan 4
Trump’s First Ad (Master Persuader Filter), Jan 4
Master Persuader Scorecard (Update Jan 4), Jan 4
Comparing the Candidates (Using the Master Persuader Filter), Jan 5
Making Mexico Pay for the Wall, Jan 5
The Amazon Gift Predictor (Trump Master Persuader Series), Jan 5
The Canadian Gambit (Trump Persuasion Series), Jan 6
Trump and Climate Science (Master Persuader Series), Jan 7
The Thought Police Did Not Like it When I Said Something Like This, Jan 7
Working on the White Guy Brand, Jan 8
Why I Should Win the Nobel Prize (and other things I learned from Trump), Jan 8
Politico Tries to Trump Me on “The Turn”, Jan 9
Why Would a Man Vote for Hillary Clinton?, Jan 9
The Laugh Tell (Trump Master Persuader Series), Jan 9
The Iowa Reframing, Jan 11
The Oddest Thing About Trump, Jan 11
Today I Help You See the Future, Jan 11
Men: Confess Your Support for Hillary Clinton, Jan 12
Charisma Vs. Danger (Master Persuader Series), Jan 13
The Candidate Supporter Stereotypes (Master Persuader Series), Jan 14
Master Persuader Scorecard for the GOP Debate, Jan 15
Robots Read News about Trump’s Offer to…(no spoilers!), Jan 15
The Biggest Trump Story That You Missed (Master Persuasion Series), Jan 15
Trump Master Persuader Quiz: What Would YOU Do?, Jan 17
The Matriarchy - Patriarchy Continuum, Jan 18
Robots Read News about British Politicians and Trump, Jan 19
Trump’s Dog Problem, Jan 19
The Palin Endorsement (Master Persuader Series), Jan 19
The Gender Card Top, Jan 20
Boycott Valentines Day?, Jan 20
Master Persuader Scorecard - Iran Update, Jan 21
Trump’s Talent Stack: Systems versus Goals, Jan 21
Bernie Sanders Turns on the Iowa Afterburners, Jan 21
Updating the Persuasion Stack (National Review’s Trump Cover), Jan 22
The Second American Revolution - What Then?, Jan 25
Trump, FOX News, and Megyn Kelly Explained (Master Persuader Series), Jan 26
The Fake “Because”, Jan 27
Master Persuader Scorecard on the Trumpless Debate, Jan 29
Persuader Fingerprints, Jan 30

February 2016
Fire the Government (And Why Obamacare is Great!), Feb 1
Can a Master Persuader Reverse Hate?, Feb 1
The Cruz Prophesy, Feb 1. This is the book he references.
News Flash: Cartoonist Gets One Wrong!, Feb 2
New Hampshire Prediction (Master Persuader Series), Feb 3
Scoring My Iowa Fraud Call, Feb 4
Spooky Alert! Spooky Alert!, Feb 4
The Pledge of Allegiance, Feb 4
Friday Trump Joke, Feb 5
The GOP Debate Scorecard (Master Persuader Series), Feb 7
New Hampshire Election Fraud Prediction, Feb 8
The Thinking Filters, Feb 9
The Movie Persuasion Filter, Feb 9
My New Hampshire Prediction Scorecard, Feb 10
Why Does Trump Terrify People?, Feb 11
Policies and Name Recognition (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 12
Scalia and the Pillow, Feb 16
The Trump Master Persuader Index and Reading List, Feb 18 - Scott replicates this list and includes a link to his persuasion reading list from Sept 24, 2015
The Pope Versus Donald Trump, Feb 18
Solving for Scary (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 22
My CNN Interview About Trump, Feb 22
Some Respect for Hillary Clinton, Feb 23
How to Spot a Narcissist (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 24
The Choke Artist Versus the Watch Salesman (Trump Persuasion Series), Feb 26
Disavowing Trump, Feb 28
Movie Persuasion Recommendations, Feb 29
Trump’s VP Options (Master Persuader Filter), Feb 29

March 2016
Strategic Ambiguity (Master Persuasion Series), Mar 1
Super Tuesday (Master Persuader Series), Mar 2
A Letter to Donald Trump (from a voter, not me), Mar 2
Naming Romney’s Upcoming Anti-Trump Speech, Mar 3
Republican Debate (March 3) Scorecard (Master Persuader Series), Mar 4
The Power of Ideas, Mar 4
Scott Adams on Fox and Friends (clip), Mar 6. and here's the link to the interview
The Conservative Con (Master Persuader Series), Mar 7
Another Way to Make Mexico Pay for The Wall (Trump Persuasion Series), Mar 8
Resort USA, Mar 8
Who Trump Offends with His Salty Language, Mar 9
Let’s Talk About Hitler, Mar 10
GOP Debate Scorecard - March 10 (Master Persuader Series), Mar 11
The Trump Riots That are Mostly My Fault, Mar 13
Donald Trump - Con Man, Mar 15
Clinton Versus Trump, Mar 16
Real Donald Trump Quotes about Women, Mar 16
Stamina - Trump’s Lingistic Kill Shot for Clinton (Master Persuader Series), Mar 17
How to Know Trump is in Your Head, Mar 17
Bumper Sticker Thinking, Mar 19
Social Media is the New Government, Mar 20
The Belgium Analogy, Mar 21
Sleeper Persuasion with a Trigger, Mar 22
Who’s Afraid of Donald Trump?, Mar 24
Trump and Abortion, Mar 31

April 2016
The Trump Chess Board, Apr 18
The Value of Not Voting, Apr 19
Trump Dominates the Empire State, Apr 20
How Powerful is Persuasion?, Apr 21
Cyberbombs and ISIS, Apr 25
The Unfavorability Illusion, Apr 26
And Then There Were Two, Apr 27
Can Trump Change the Frame on His Perceived Sexism?, Apr 28
The Health Tell, Apr 29

May 2016
Say Goodbye to Your Mind, May 1
Clinton Versus Trump - Persuasion Scores, May 3
How to Do Persuasion Wrong, May 4
How Not to Make a Campaign Ad, May 5
The Apology Gambit, May 9
About Those Trump Policy Details, May 11
Power, Persuasion, and Attractiveness, May 13
The Mother of All Campaign Errors, May 13
The John Miller Thing, May 15
Reframing Our Problems, May 16
Trump’s VP Pick Prediction, May 17
Impossible To Ignore, May 17
“Excuse me”, May 18
Evaluating the Political Chess Board, May 19
Being Memorable, May 20
My Podcast with Thor (About Trump’s Persuasion), May 20
Battle of the Campaign Slogans, May 23
The Mark Cuban Factor, May 24
Citizen Government, May 25
The Sanders Debate Gambit, May 26
When Art Directors Take Sides, May 27
How to Hypnotize Bill Maher, May 30
Climate Change and Trump, May 30

June 2016
The Risks of a Trump Presidency, Jun 2
Now It’s a Fair Fight, Jun 3
My Endorsement for President of the United States, Jun 5 Scott Endorses HRH for Self-protection
The Robot Judge, Jun 7
Trump: Man of Science?, Jun 9
The Orlando Trigger, Jun 13
Some of My Tweets, Jun 13
Trump’s Muslim Immigration Proposal (Update), Jun 14
Persuasion Think-ahead, Jun 15
Where’s That Trump Third Act?, Jun 16
How to Un-Hypnotize a Rabid Anti-Trumper, Jun 19
Some Thoughts about Lewandowski, Campaign Funding, and Safety, Jun 21
Why Gun Control Can’t Be Solved in the USA, Jun 22
The Humiliation of the American Male in 2016, Jun 23
Persuasion Update: Clinton Vs. Trump, Jun 28
Hypnotizing My Dog, Snickers, Jun 30
The Time I Accidentally Plunged Europe into Economic Uncertainty, Jun 30

July 2016
The Crook Versus the Racist, Jul 5
The FBI, Credibility, and Government, Jul 7
The Persuasion Diet, Jul 11
When Persuasion Turns Deadly, Jul 11
Trump’s Glide Path, Jul 12
Cop Killers Versus Racists, Jul 14
Gingrich, Pence, and Monitoring Mosques, Jul 16
How Persuaders See the World, Jul 18
Rocking the Vote – for Snoopy?, Jul 20
Newt’s Plan to Defeat ISIS, Jul 20
The Trump Kids Effect, Jul 21
My Opinion of Trump’s Convention Speech, Jul 22
Clinton’s VP Pick, Jul 23 Will Kaine drive away the male vote?
Martial Law Coming?, Jul 24
Clinton Uses “Dark” Magic, Jul 24 Scott thinks Clinton has a weapons grade persuader on her team
The Dark and Rotten Election, Jul 26 Godzilla vs King Kong
Selling Past the Close, Jul 27 Don't! A woman can be president, we get it. Now capture the male vote.
Experience is Overrated, Jul 29
The Inexperienced Voter, Jul 30
Sunday Persuasion Reading, Jul 31

August 2016
Clinton Takes the Persuasion Lead, Aug 3
Drug Testing Presidential Candidates, Aug 7
Several Interesting Things, Aug 18
Trump’s Regrets, Aug 19
The Direct Democracy President, Aug 22 Scott imagines how Trump would really be if he were president
Making Mexico Pay for the Wall, Aug 22
Clinton Dodges the Health Question on Kimmel, Aug 23
Con Man or Hitler?, Aug 24
On a Positive Note…, Aug 24
Clinton and Trump Switch Brands, Aug 25
Finding the Political Bottom, Aug 26
The Face of Persuasion, Aug 27
The Mental Vote, Aug 27
The Most Biased Poll Ever, Aug 28
Be Useful (A Post About Colin Kaepernick), Aug 30
Deportation and Deals, Aug 31 plus powerful hypnotic words

September 2016
See Me on The Rubin Report, Sep 1
Watch Me: Rubin Report (part 2), InfoWars, CNN, Sep 2
Why Trump Doesn’t Scare Me, Sep 5
Godzilla!!!, Sep 6. Scott Says to buy Cialdini's book Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade
The Time I Took Sides with Black Lives Matter. And Colin Kaepernick., Sep 8
Measuring the Shy Trump Supporters, Sep 9
Check Out my Sulley Prediction from 2009, Sep 10
The Race for President is (Probably) Over, Sep 11
Checking My Predictions About Clinton’s Health, Sep 11
Deplorable Pneumonia, Sep 12
When Reality Turned Inside Out, Sep 15 Has Trump successfully pivoted? Who's the crazy one now?
Trump and Birtherism - update, Sep 17
Assessing the Risk of Trump, Sep 18
Checking My Spooky Predictions, Sep 19
How to Know an Election is Over, Sep 22
Blowing Your Mind – as Promised, Sep 23
Why I Switched My Endorsement from Clinton to Trump, Sep 25, Scott Endorses Trump!
How’s My Timing?, Sep 26
Trump’s African-American Reframing, Sep 26
I Score the First Debate, Sep 27, I think Scott may have succumbed to confirmation bias on this one. His claim that Trump won by losing and therefore looking less scary seems really thin to me. I still remain open to the possibility that Scott's Persuasion filter is the best lens at which to look at this election, but as I write this (12-Oct), it is looking increasingly unlikely.
The Wall Around ISIS, Sep 28

October 2016
Presidential Temperament, Oct 3
The Week I Became a Target, Oct 3
Why Does This Happen on My Vacation? (The Trump Tapes), Oct 8
Why I Endorse Gary Johnson (this week), Oct 9
Quick Debate Reactions from Switzerland, Oct 10
Hear Me Tonight on BBC News Hour, Oct 11
Scandal Poker - Trump Vs. Clinton, Oct 12 (Very thin analysis IMHO)
The Era of Women, Oct 13, "Everything that goes wrong with the country from this point forward is women’s fault" Riiiiiiight...
Assume Half of What You Hear About the Candidates is True, Oct 14
Lie Detection and Scandals, Oct 17
Is Twitter Shadowbanning me?, Oct 18
I Wake You Up for the Presidential Debate, Oct 19, Anti-Trumpers are suffering from confirmation bias. He forgets to mention that anti-Clintons are too. HE makes the point that the fear people feel for either candidate is an illusion. He ends it with "...vote for whoever has the policies you like."
I Score the Third Debate, Oct 20, Scott gives Clinton a narrow win.
The Crook Versus the Monster, Oct 21, Scott says that if Trump is elected and turns out to be a Hitler wannabe, he will use all his skills to have him assassinated. He closes with  an admonishment to look beyond the caricatures of the politicians--they're wrong. Vote for whoever has the policies that you like.
How to Insult Me on Twitter, Oct 21
Twitter and Periscope Shadowban Update. Oct 23
How to Legally Vote More Than Once, Oct 23, How to convince the other side not to vote
The Bully Party, Oct 25, Scott wholeheartedly endorses Trump
Watch the Persuasion Battle, Oct 26, I do not like Scott's direction. Some things he says have truth, OTOH, Trump is on camera as bullying and making fun of other American citizens. Scott seems to be denying this...
A Lesson in Cognitive Dissonance, Oct 27
About Leadership, Oct 28
James Comey - As seen through the Persuasion Filter, Oct 31, What is Comey up to? Is there a way to view his actions as consistent?
Candidate Risk Assessment, Oct 31, Hilary is bad because she drinks alcohol. Scott makes up numbers to measure riskiness of candidates. Guess who Scott thinks is less risky. Lol

November 2016
The Persuasion Scorecard Update - One Week Out, Nov 2, Still predicting Trump in a landslide. Fear of Hilary being the dominant emotion against her while Trump only has the Ick factor.
Same Candidates, Different Worlds, Nov 3
Unhypnotizing a Clinton Supporter, Nov 4
Trump the Closer, Nov 4
The Dehypnotizing has Begun, Nov 5
Vote with a Friend (for safety), Nov 6
I Don’t Want a Government Job, Nov 6, "The fight ends Tuesday. After that, let’s try to be useful. No matter what happens."
Thank You for The Best Year Ever, Nov 7, Scott predicts that the Dem forces will br committing election fraud. Two days ago he was still predicting a Trump landslide. Perhaps he is giving himself an out. I have to say that Scott has stuck to his guns. If he is right and Trump wins, I will have to give him serious kudos. If Hillary loses, he has still had a remarkable run.
The Last Confirmation Bias Test of This Election, Nov 8
I Answer Your Questions About Predicting President Trump, Nov 9
The De-Hitlerization of Your Brain. Nov 10
Persuasion or Coincidence?, Nov 10
While You Were Looking in the Wrong Direction, Nov 11
The Cognitive Dissonance Cluster Bomb, Nov 12
How to Break an Illusion, Nov 13
The Thought Experiment that Broke Your Brain, Nov 15
The Hypnosis Lawyer, Nov 16
Working for the Machines, Nov 17
Reprogram an Anti-Trumper with This Article, Nov 17
Generating Cognitive Dissonance for Fun, Nov 20
Persuasion Versus Populism, Nov 21
A Lesson in Cognitive Dissonance, Nov 23
The Trump Talent Stack, Nov 28
About #Pizzagate, Nov 30
The Idea You are Least Likely to Believe, Nov 30

December 2016
The New CEO’s First Moves (and Trump), Dec 1
Trump and the Taiwan Call, Dec 3
The Non-Expert Problem and Climate Change Science, Dec 5
Trump and the Secretary of State “Brand” Decision, Dec 6
How the Trump Administration Can Lower Healthcare Costs, Dec 7
Watching Trump Create Money from Nothing, Dec 9
The Time That Reality Forked Right in Front of You, Dec 10
Fake News Versus Misleading News, Dec 11
More Start-Ups That Could Lower Healthcare Costs, Dec 12
Remind Me Why Russia is Our Adversary?, Dec 13
The Campaign Hallucinations Are Lifting, Dec 14
Persuasion and ISIS, Dec 16
Watching the Climate Science Bubbles from the Outside, Dec 19
The Wikileaks Persuasion You Missed, Dec 19
Called It, Dec 19
How Many Trump Votes Did I Cause?, Dec 20
How to Be Unpersuasive, Dec 21
The Mustache Prediction, Dec 21
Can the Government Deduce Your Religion Without Asking?, Dec 22
The Trump Economic Bump, Dec 22
The Kristina Talent Stack, Dec 27
The Climate Science Challenge, Dec 28
The Illusion of Knowledge, Dec 29
Best Arguments For and Against Climate Model Credibility, Dec 29

January 2017
The Master Persuader Filter and Bernie’s Ad, Jan 1
What if Climate Change Causes more CO2?, Jan 2 (not Trump related, but elements of persuasion)
Creating Economic Assets out of Nothing, Jan 4
How About an American Expense-lowering Investment Fund?,  Jan 5
Is The Onion Advising Democrats Now?, Jan 5
Is Meryl Streep Persuasive?, Jan 9
The Master Persuader Scrambles the Frame, Jan 11
A Look Back at My Trump Predictions, Jan 20, 10:58 am

I'll keep this page up to date as he posts more.

Scott has a lot of interesting views about psychology and free will as well. His latest book lays out his thoughts on this, There's a lot of wisdom there.